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BNN Message BoardsBronco Nation News: Boise State Basketball TalkNew NET Rankings

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New NET Rankings

#1 · February 4, 2024, 1:16 pm

Broncos up to #35, and Colorado State back up to #28, so now we have 5 Quad 1's again. Wow! Only the basketball elites have more quad 1 wins!

Now we won't gain any benefit by losing to Colorado State. (except we would retain the 5 Quad 1's). If we win we will temporarily have 6 Quad 1's, but on the next NET rankings they will probably drop out of top 30 and we will lose that #6, plus the #5. Am I right? Confusing, it makes my head hurt!

#2 · February 4, 2024, 4:57 pm

Yup, Tuesday's game has a chance to take away a Q1 win if things go well for us. Weird situation but in the end, just win baby and the rest will take care of itself!

I am also in the camp that if we were to at least split 1 of the 2 big games next week, we are a lock for the tourny. Would have to be a serious meltdown for us to not make it. I would go as far as saying right now we are a lock. Only mid major in the country with 5 Q1 wins + tied for top 5 nationally in the same stat. Avoid the bad Ls and I can see us being a 7 seed

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#3 · February 6, 2024, 4:06 pm

I don’t like the term “lock” at this point in the season.

I do like teamrankings bracketology, a site that calculates odds of finishing record and odds of making the tournament given number of wins.

For Boise, the “lock” number is 22 wins (99% chance of making tourney if BSU hits that number). But the calculated probability of Boise actually getting to that is ~70-75%. So not a lock currently in my mind.

Win tonight and we’re getting closer though.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/boise-st-broncos/bracketology

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