Boise State was picked to win the Mountain West for the first time in program history and now sits at 13-6 and a long shot for the NCAA Tournament. So, where do the Broncos go from here? Now that we’re four days removed from the disaster in New Mexico, here are three things Bronco Nation can look towards for the rest of the 2024-2025 season.
The Broncos at-large hopes aren’t (technically) dead
Right now, Boise State’s at-large hopes are bleak. Boise State is 2-5 in Quads 1 and 2, and has a Quad 4 loss to Boston College. The metrics are bad. Boise State’s resume average sits at 74.3 and their predictive metrics are at 53. The Broncos aren’t close to an at-large bid, but they’re not dead for one either. I’ve been saying since Mountain West play started, Boise State needed to go 16-4 in Mountain West play to be on the right side of the bubble. 16-4 is still in play. Using Bart Torvik’s teamcast, a 16-4 finish would likely put the Broncos at 7-6 in Quads 1 and 2 and likely have 3 Quad 1 wins (provided that Boise State’s loss isn’t to San Diego State on the road. Broncos need that win). Teamcast projects that outcome as a 67% chance at an at-large bid and a 10-seed.
So, the Broncos aren’t out of yet. There is still hope… But how likely is finishing 16-4 in Mountain West play? That’s where hope fades a bit. According to KenPom, Boise State has a 2.78% chance of going 13-1 or better (with a win against San Diego State). Accounting for bid stealers, Boise State’s at-large hopes likely sit around 2% right now. Boise State’s best chances at a fourth straight NCAA tournament bid will be winning the Mountain West tournament in Las Vegas, but the Broncos still have an at-large bid to play in the regular season.
Friday night’s loss may have said more about New Mexico than it did Boise State
Fans are selfish. It’s a harsh truth, but it is the truth. When a game finishes fans will draw conclusions for their team, and forget there’s an opponent involved in the game. Friday’s loss was a bad one for Boise State, and the Broncos didn’t look good, but New Mexico also looked good. Like, really really good. New Mexico is now 9-1 in their past 10 games, including a 62-48 win over San Diego State, a win over 14-4 VCU, and a blowout win over Fresno State on Monday night. New Mexico is starting to play some of their best ball, led by a defense that is starting to look like one of college basketball’s elite units. They’re long, force turnovers and block shots at an elite level. Their Achilles heel has been the nation’s 270th ranked 3-point defense, but in their last five games, New Mexico is holding teams to just 28% from 3-point range, including Boise State’s 5/24 performance. The Lobos have held teams under 32% from 3-point range in 4 of those 5 games. Yes, Boise State didn’t play their best. Leon Rice said it best, “(Boise) got punked in that first half” – but one truth can have two sides. Boise State got punked, but New Mexico did the punking, and the Lobos have been punking a lot of teams as of late.
This isn’t to excuse Boise State’s loss. If Boise State wants to be an NCAA Tournament-caliber team, they need to be competitive in that game, despite the environment. Let’s hold off on Boise State’s obituary though. Just as New Mexico has had one blip in an otherwise stellar 10-game stretch, Friday’s loss could be the blip for a Boise State offense that had otherwise been peaking as of late. If Boise State shows out against Colorado State tomorrow, I hope Bronco Nation will acknowledge Friday’s loss may have said more about New Mexico than it did the Broncos.
Boise State needs to play its best five
All year we’ve talked about Boise State’s rotations and the tinkering that Leon has done game-after-game. Boise State has started 10 different players this season and there’s been a myriad of reasons for the lineup changes so far: Leon started Emmanuel Ugbo because of his defense, RJ Keene got into the lineup because of his connectivity and rebounding, Julian Bowie because of his shooting, Javan Buchanan because of his scoring, and the list goes on-and-on for all 10 guys. I think we’ve yet to see Boise State’s best five start and finish a game together. I think it’s time we see that happen. Early in the season, Leon didn’t know who those five would be. This team only returned 2 starters from last year’s squad and brought together 10 scholarship players who had never played a minute for Boise State. Finding the best five was going to take time, but time has run out. Boise State needs that five now.
Amidst all the tinkering, we have a large enough sample size to get a good sense of where everyone is at. Tyson Degenhart and Alvaro Cardenas have emerged as the two best players for this team. From there, the decision gets murkier. With that said, I would go with O’Mar Stanley. Stanley was second team All-Mountain West last season and was expected to be one of the league’s best players this season. For Boise State to be an NCAA tournament squad they need to find that version of O’Mar Stanley. Stanley has come off the bench the past 6 games, but it hasn’t worked. It’s time to get him back in the starting lineup and empowering him as this team’s defensive anchor.
Next, I think it’s time to pull Andrew Meadow out of the starting lineup and play Javan Buchanan. The goal of having Meadow in the starting lineup was to give this team shooting, rebounding and defense. Buchanan’s been a more efficient scorer (Buchanan has 58.5% eFG% compared to Meadow’s 56.2%), they’ve been almost identical as rebounders, but Buchanan’s been significantly better defensively. Buchanan has the length and athleticism to guard 1 through 5 and is generating stocks (blocks + steals) on 4% of defensive possessions, compared to Meadow’s 2.5%. Most importantly, in Boise State’s biggest games, Buchanan has played well. In Boise State’s four Quad 1 games, Javan Buchanan has an eFG% of 72.4% and a team-best offensive rating of 142.3. Meadow has graded much lower, 46% eFG% and an offensive rating of 122.5. One other Meadow stat that I didn’t love, Andrew Meadow hasn’t had an assist since Boise’s loss to Washington State on December 7, and has just 1 assist since Boise State’s loss to Boston College on November 26. Meadow can be a ball stopper, and this team doesn’t have the shot creators to forgo ball movement. Meanwhile, Buchan’s ability to create shots for himself is something this team desperately needs, and his ability as a high IQ cutter has made him a great pairing alongside Cardenas. I’ve been tweeting since November that Javan Buchanan will be an All-Mountain West player next season, it’s time to start him now and see what he can do this year.
Lastly, I would start Julian Bowie. This team needs shooters, and he’s been the team’s best shooter this year (among players with 15+ attempts). Chris Lockett has been good as well, particularly as an offensive rebounder and athletic defender, but I think this team’s path to a tournament bid is with elite offense and this squad need’s shooting more than it needs more rebounding. For those of you keeping track at home, that’s Cardenas, Bowie, Buchanan, Degenhart, Stanley. That’s the five I think Boise State needs to start and finish games with from here on out. We’ll see if Leon Rice agrees, but whoever is out there for the Broncos.
Looking ahead to Colorado State
The best way to get to 13-1 is to start 1-0. Boise State takes on Colorado State tomorrow night in Fort Collins. Colorado State has been disappointing this season, starting the year just 11-7, but the Rams are a formidable opponent. KenPom projects the Rams as 1-point favorites and could go down as a Quad 1 game if Colorado State improves (CSU is currently 81st in the NET rankings and Top-75 road games are Quad 1).
The Rams run a five-out motion offense that emphasizes shooting and cutting. They’re 2nd in the Mountain West in how often they take threes and 1st in the Mountain West in assist percentage, how often a made basket came off an assist. Their offense creates space and forces defense to either help off shooters or leave defenders one-on-one in the paint. This leads the Rams to the #1 2-point offense in the Mountain West and the #1 offense in terms of eFG%. Since they play five-out, they rarely get offensive rebounds (309th in OReb%) and their emphasis on passing to cutters and kickouts leads to a lot of turnovers (10th in the Mountain West in turnover rate). They’re led by Nique Clifford, a do-it-all wing who is top-15 in the conference in rebounding, assist rate, steal rate, free throw percentage and two-point percentage. Clifford is CSU’s LeBron James and they give him the ball like he is LeBron. Clifford’s 28% usage rate in conference play is the highest in the Mountain West. Guarding #10 will be key for Boise State to come away with a win, and it’s another reason I like starting Buchanan this week.
Defensively, the Rams look very similar to the Broncos. CSU’s tallest starter is 6-8 Jaylen Crocker-Johnson, and given their lack of a true big they rely on team defense to protect the paint. When team’s get the ball inside, the Rams are quick to crash the paint, often double-teaming post touches. This can lead to open kick out threes, where the Rams are 213th nationally in three-point percentage allowed. Much like the Broncos, the Rams defensive style leads to a lack of blocks or steals. The Rams are dead last in steal percentage in conference play.
If the Broncos want to win, they will need to slow down Nique Clifford, stay disciplined on CSU’s cutters and knock down their open threes when they get them. The recipe for victory is not dissimilar to the one the Broncos faced before the New Mexico game, Bronco Nation will be hoping Leon and co. can execute the gameplan this time around.
