One week after taking down Mountain West leading New Mexico 86-78, the Broncos added a blowout win over the number two team in the Mountain West 82-65. Boise State’s win over Utah State caps off the Broncos’ best eight day stretch of the season. Boise State captured two Quad 2 wins against projected NCAA at-large teams, and a Quad 1 against Nevada. After a blowout loss to San Diego State, the Broncos needed to be perfect the rest of the way for any chance at an at-large bid, and they’ve done just that. The Broncos still have a long ways to go before they are dancing, but the signs of life the past week are impossible to downplay.
The most recent win against Utah State was particularly impressive. Boise State held the Aggies to just 1 point per possession, their third lowest since conference play began. It was Boise State’s best team defense of the season. All night long rotations were crisp, energy was high, and every Bronco was eager to contest shots; Boise State had 3 blocked shots, which may not seem like much, but it was their highest total since a 7 block outburst against UNLV at the start of the month. Boise’s effort on the interior kept the Aggies to 44% from two-point range, who were previously the #1 scoring offense from two-point range in conference play. After giving up 61% from the floor and 1.4 points per possession in the first matchup in Logan, Wednesday night’s win signifies the development out of Leon Rice’s squad this season.
On the offensive end, the Broncos continue to get from a variety of places. Since inserting Pearson Carmichael into the starting lineup against New Mexico, the Broncos have had five different players score 15 or more points. On Wednesday, it was Tyson Degenhart leading the way with 21 points. Degenhart started the game 0/5 but finished 7/8 and carried the Broncos to a blowout down the stretch. Alvaro Cardenas had one of his best games as a Bronco, scoring 16 points and leading the team in rebounds (6) and assists (7). It was one of the best point guard displays I’ve seen by a Bronco. Cardenas was in complete control of the offense, ensuring that the Broncos got a good look on nearly every possession. Boise State finished with 1.26 points per possession, the best performance against Utah State’s defense since… Boise State’s 1.36 points per possession during the game in Logan.
Most important from Boise State’s win? Seven Broncos played 10+ minutes, and I thought all seven played well and impacted the game in a positive way. Much of Boise State’s issues at the beginning of the season were inconsistencies within the rotation. There were too many games where multiple players were getting minutes and not leaving their mark on the game. Andrew Meadow was second in scoring with 17 points, Pearson Carmichael 4/7 from the field and, as both Leon and Cardenas noted postgame, created crucial scores in the first half when the Broncos’ offense started to breakdown. RJ Keene had 5 rebounds in just 18 minutes, Emmanuel Ugbo opened the game with two quick baskets and a block in his starting minutes. Javan Buchanan struggled shooting, going just 1/6 from the floor, but had 3 offensive rebounds, 2 steals and 1 block, showing he can still impact the game when he isn’t scoring.
Most encouraging for Bronco Nation was O’Mar Stanley’s performance. Stanley played just 15 minutes but looked like the O’Mar Stanley that was a preseason All-Mountain West selection. Stanley had 10 points and 4 rebounds in his limited minutes, shooting 5/7 from the field and chipping in phenomenal defense along the way. Leon admitted after the game he should’ve gotten O’Mar more minutes, but opted to play his five best free throw shooters the last seven minutes when Utah State was trying to extend the game. When Boise State was picked as the Mountain West preseason favorite, the expectation was that Tyson Degenhart would be a Mountain West Player of the Year and that Alvaro Cardenas and O’Mar Stanley would be All-Mountain West caliber players. Tyson’s played at that level, Cardenas has played at that level, but we haven’t seen the All-Conference version of O’Mar Stanley that we expected. Wednesday night was the closest thing. Stanley was playing with confidence and energy that we haven’t seen this year, getting to his spots on the floor and looking to score, while crashing the glass and providing rim protection that this team has desperately needed. This Boise State team has found a way to win with O’Mar Stanley in a smaller role, but if Stanley can get back to the version of himself we saw in 2023-24, I think the Broncos are poised for more than just a Mountain West tournament run.
The Broncos played smart offense, physical defense throughout and with immense confidence. Something about ExtraMile Arena gets the best out of this team. The Broncos’ win moves them to 13-1 at home this season where they will finish out the year on Senior Night next Friday against Colorado State. Boise State has back-to-back road games against Fresno State and Air Force before then, but barring one of the largest upsets of the season, the Broncos should be playing at home with a chance to finish the year 15-5 in Mountain West play.
Broncos At-Large update
As the season has progressed there has been plenty of discussion about Boise State’s at-large hopes, and whether or not they still have a chance. At the end of each article, I’ll provide a brief update on where various metrics and bracket experts have the Broncos’ at-large chances:
The Broncos added another Quad 2 win against Utah State and now have positioned themselves squarely on the bubble. Bracket experts seem to be split 50/50 on whether Boise State is currently on the right or the wrong side of the bubble, but with three games remaining the Broncos have time to leave no doubt. Boise State is up 43rd in the NET and 7-6 in Quad 1/2 games. The Broncos at-large hopes are alive and well, but finishing the season 3-0 is likely a necessity. Even then, best case scenario may be a trip to Dayton and the First Four. Regardless, a trip to Dayton seemed impractical 12 days ago, now it feels as attainable as ever.
Nathan Carroll is a part-time contributor for Bronco Nation News and host of the TBA Basketball Podcast. Nathan works for Pro Football Focus as part of their data collection team, specializing in charting player data at the FBS level. Previously, he graduated from Boise State’s Honors College with a degree in Quantitative Economics and worked 5 years in Boise State’s athletic department. Follow him on X at Nathan_26_
