Boise State takes on its biggest road test of the season on Saturday when the Broncos head to Logan to take on the Utah State Aggies. Boise State (12-4, 3-1 MW) is coming off its best performance of the season, an 81-59 win against UNLV, while Utah State (15-1, 5-0) is riding a five-game win streak and in first place in the Mountain West. A win would be paramount to Boise State’s NCAA Tournament hopes, while a loss would put the Broncos’ at-large hopes on life support. Let’s dive into the matchup.
Get to know the Aggies
Utah State has looked the best team in the Mountain West by a wide margin through the first half of the year. The Aggies have marquee wins against Iowa and North Texas on neutral sites as well as road wins against St. Mary’s and San Diego State. Their lone loss was a 73-75 home loss to UC San Diego, which has sneaked their way into the at-large picture as well.
Offensively, Utah State is very similar to Boise State. The Aggies pound the offensive glass to create extra possessions (26th in OReb%) and lean on efficient interior scoring to make up for a poor shooting team (57.9% from 2 and 32.5% from 3 on the season). They rely on great ball movement to set up good looks at the basket, and when things get tough, they rely on their Mountain West Player of the Year candidate (Mason Falslev) to bail them out. The biggest difference between Boise and Utah State’s offenses are that Boise State’s offense likes to move slow and play in the half court, whereas the Aggies are one of the faster paced teams in the nation. Utah State’s offense is led by Mason Falslev. Falslev is averaging 16.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 3.4 APG on 53.9% shooting 47.5% from 3 on the year. He’s a clinical shooter and excellent at getting to his spots where he feels most comfortable knocking down shots. Boise State has struggled with scoring guards this season and Falslev will be one of the toughest tests yet. As a team, the Aggies aren’t overwhelming athletically, and it’s a matchup I think the Broncos can win. With Utah State’s emphasis on the offensive glass, it’ll be strength-on-strength and likely one of the key factors in who comes out victorious. (More on that later)
Defensively, Utah State couldn’t look more different from Boise State. Boise State’s defense is predicated on sound rebounding and good team defense that forces teams to make tough shots or win in isolation. Utah State emphasizes ball pressure and forces turnovers to create havoc and generate extra possessions for their offense, the Aggies are 33rd in the nation in defensive turnover rate. Since they like to get out and run in transition, Utah State can be prone to give up offensive rebounds (152nd in DReb%) and when they go to their smaller lineups, they can give up looks at the basket (211th in 2P% allowed). Boise State will need to take advantage and continually punish Utah State on the boards and in the paint for a chance to win.
What does this game mean for Boise State?
This game is massive for Mountain West Championship implications. The Aggies are first in the Mountain West and a win would put Boise State into second place (behind 5-0 New Mexico) with an early tiebreak advantage over Utah State. A loss would mean the Broncos fall to 4-2 in conference play and 2 games back of Utah State in the conference (plus the tiebreak disadvantage). As for Boise State’s NCAA Tournament hopes, a loss would make things pretty bleak for the Broncos. The record that Boise State fans should keep in mind is 24-7 (16-4 in MW play). I’ve talked to multiple bracketologists and all of them have said the Broncos should safely be in the field with that record. A loss would drop Boise State to 12-5 and 4-2 in Mountain West play, meaning they would have to almost perfect the rest of the way to get an at-large bid. Conversely, a win would push Boise State back into the at-large conversation. The Broncos would pick up another Quad 1 win and be knocking on the door of early bracket projections. It’s not quite an elimination game for Boise State’s at-large chances, but a win would give the Broncos some much margin for error as we approach the final stretch of the season.
Keys to a Bronco Victory
Tyson Degenhart: This game has Tyson Degenhart written all over it. A team who is prone to give up offensive rebounds and doesn’t have good rim protectors? It’s a matchup made in heaven for Degenhart. I don’t think Boise State can pull off the upset if Tyson has an average game, and this is the type of opponent that I think 25 and 10 is a realistic box score for him. If the Mountain West Preseason Player of the Year has a big game, the Broncos have a chance.
Limit turnovers: This is true for all matchups, but Utah State in particular thrives on forcing turnovers and getting easy baskets. Alvaro Cardenas is coming a 9-assist, 0-turnover performance against UNLV, and he’ll need a similarly efficient performance for Boise State to have a shot. As a team, if the Broncos can have less than 11.5 turnovers, I like their chances to win.
Win the glass battle on defense: This is the most important matchup to watch. Utah State lives on the offensive glass (26th in OReb%) and Boise State is an elite defensive rebounding team (6th in DReb%). Utah State had 17 offensive rebounds in their win against San Jose State, and it’s what ultimately cost the Spartans an upset in my opinion. If the Aggies can get 15 offensive rebounds against Boise State, I don’t see how the Broncos win. It’s not pretty, but limiting Utah State possessions to one shot is going to be a major factor in keeping Boise State in business.
What do the analytics say?
The computers like the Aggies in this one. KenPom projects a 78-72 win for Utah State and Torvik projects a 77-72 win for Utah State. Sportsbooks don’t have a line for this one, most college basketball games get lines about 24 hours before gametime, but I would expect this one to be about Utah State -5.