We’ve finally hit the homestretch of the regular season, with numerous teams eyeing in on the ultimate goal of making the NCAA Tournament.
Throughout this long season there has been one common theme that has remained the same – the Mountain West regular season title is San Diego State’s to lose.
Boise State (12-3) is one game back of the Aztecs (13-2) for first place while Nevada is (11-4) a full two games back. Each team has just three games remaining to close out the regular season.
Though SDSU is currently in full control, the Aztecs next two games both come on the road at New Mexico and Boise State. Even with the Lobos struggling of late, the Aztecs early season loss to New Mexico at Viejas Arena will certainly be looming in the back of their minds while strolling into The Pit, Saturday night.
If the Aztecs fall to New Mexico and Boise State tallies a win at San Jose State on Saturday, a battle for first place would be set up at ExtraMile Arena next Tuesday with the winner clinching at least a share of the Mountain West regular season title.
With a week and a half left before the conclusion of the regular season, here’s a look at how the Mountain West Tournament bracket would look in the first two rounds based on the current standings…
First round on Wednesday March 8:
#8 UNLV vs. #9 Air Force
#7 Fresno State vs. #10 Colorado State
#6 San Jose State vs. #11 Wyoming
Quarterfinal Round on Thursday March 9:
#1 San Diego State vs. UNLV/Air Force
#4 Utah State vs. #5 New Mexico
#2 Boise State vs. Fresno State/Colorado State
#3 Nevada vs. San Jose State/Wyoming
Must-watch games the rest of the season:
Friday Feb. 24 Nevada @ Fresno State (FS1, 9 p.m. MT)
Saturday Feb. 25 San Diego State @ New Mexico (CBS Sports Network, 8 p.m. MT)
Tuesday Feb. 28 San Diego State @ Boise State (CBS Sports Network, 7 p.m. MT)
Saturday March 4 Boise State @ Utah State (Mountain West Network, 7 p.m. MT)
Let’s take an individual look at each team in the Mountain West…
#22 San Diego State (22-5 | 13-2 MW | #16 NET | #16 KenPom)
The Aztecs have two challenging road games left before finishing the season at home against last place Wyoming. With San Diego State sitting one game above Boise State for first place, the Aztecs are in a must-win situation heading into The Pit on Saturday. With a loss to the Lobos, San Diego State would open the door for Boise State to clinch a share of the conference regular season conference title in next Tuesday’s matchup, assuming the Broncos take care of business in San Jose. Nonetheless, San Diego State controls its own destiny in this conference and is just about a lock to make the NCAA Tournament barring a meltdown.
Schedule the rest of the season:
Saturday Feb. 25 @ New Mexico (CBS Sports Network, 8 p.m. MT)
Tuesday Feb. 28 @ Boise State (CBS Sports Network, 7 p.m. MT)
Saturday March 4 vs. Wyoming (CBS Sports Network, 8 p.m. MT)
Boise State (22-6 | 12-3 MW | #23 NET | #26 KenPom)
Saddle up, because the Broncos have hit their stride approaching the finish line for the regular season. Since losing to San Diego State in ugly fashion, Boise State has won its last four games and is setting up for a huge rematch with the Aztecs next week. If SDSU falls to New Mexico on Saturday the Broncos would have a chance to secure a share of the conference regular season title with a win. Boise State still has to take care of business at San Jose State to finish off the week before any eyes turn to the potential Mountain West game of the year.
Schedule the rest of the season:
Saturday Feb. 25 @ San Jose State (Mountain West Network, 5 p.m. MT)
Tuesday Feb. 28 vs. San Diego State (CBS Sports Network, 7 p.m. MT)
Saturday March 4 @ Utah State (Mountain West Network, 7 p.m. MT)
Nevada (21-7 | 11-4 MW | #32 NET | #33 KenPom)
Despite a first half in which the Wolf Pack looked horrific shooting the ball, Nevada came out of the locker room with a stellar second half performance to keep its position of third place in the conference. Though it’s going to be near impossible for the Wolf Pack to win the conference regular season title, Nevada is a strong team that can make noise in the conference tournament. Jarod Lucas and co. have three games against the bottom half of the standings to finish the season and will likely head into Las Vegas with momentum.
Schedule the rest of the season:
Friday Feb. 24 @ Fresno State (FS1, 9 p.m. MT)
Monday Feb. 27 @ Wyoming (CBS Sports Network, 7 p.m. MT)
Saturday March 4 vs. UNLV (Mountain West Network, 3 p.m. MT)
Utah State (22-7 | 11-5 MW | #31 NET | #35 KenPom)
The Aggies are walking a fine line on the bubble, with an opportunity to potentially move to the right side to end the season. A comeback win over Nevada in which Utah State was down 15 points heading into the locker room has given the Aggies a new sense of life heading into the rest of the regular season and the conference tournament. Steven Ashworth is a certified hooper and when the 6-foot-1 guard gets hot Utah State can beat anyone in the Mountain West.
Schedule the rest of the season:
Wednesday March 1 @ UNLV (CBS Sports Network, 9 p.m. MT)
Saturday March 4 vs. Boise State (Mountain West Network, 7 p.m. MT)
New Mexico (20-8 | 7-8 MW | #47 NET | #47 KenPom)
New Mexico just about lost any hope of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament with a loss to Boise State earlier this week. The Lobos are now 7-8 in conference play which is not close to good enough for the committee, especially when selecting from a mid-major school. New Mexico still has a chance for a second signature win over the Aztecs to help out the rest of the conference this weekend. Nonetheless, even with a win the Lobos will likely need to win the conference tournament to be going dancing in March.
Schedule the rest of the season:
Saturday Feb. 25 vs. San Diego State (CBS Sports Network, 8 p.m. MT)
Tuesday Feb. 28 vs. Fresno State (FS1, 8:30 p.m. MT)
Friday March 3 @ Colorado State (FS1, 9 p.m. MT)
San Jose State (16-12 | 7-8 MW | #107 NET | #104 KenPom)
Although the Spartans are out of the conference race for the regular season, the improvement the San Jose State basketball program has made with Tim Miles as coach needs to be mentioned. The Spartans have turned from a team most teams would chalk up as a win before tip to one that teams fear. With Omari Moore leading the charge for San Jose State the Spartans can compete with anyone in the Mountain West.
Schedule the rest of the season:
Saturday Feb. 25 vs. Boise State (Mountain West Network, 5 p.m. MT)
Tuesday Feb. 28 vs. Colorado State (CBS Sports Network, 9 p.m. MT)
Saturday March 4 @ Air Force (Mountain West Network, 2 p.m. MT)
Fresno State (10-17 | 6-10 MW | #162 NET | #148 KenPom)
The Bulldogs are a scary team to face in the Mountain West Tournament. Fresno State’s ferocious defense in combination with an improving offense can take down the best this conference has to offer. The Bulldogs have not only beat New Mexico, but also took down UNLV twice before falling to San Diego State by just two points. You don’t want to have a cold shooting night against the Bulldogs in Las Vegas, especially as a team near the bubble.
Schedule the rest of the season:
Friday Feb. 24 vs. Nevada (FS1, 9 p.m. MT)
Tuesday Feb. 28 @ New Mexico (FS1, 8:30 p.m. MT)
Saturday March 4 vs. Chicago State (Mountain West Network, 5 p.m. MT)
UNLV (16-11 | 5-10 MW | #85 NET | #86 KenPom)
The Runnin’ Rebels have been such a hard team to figure out this season. A team that started the year on a long winning streak has been disappointing to say the least in conference play, sitting at 5-10. With that being said, UNLV has a slight advantage in Las Vegas for the conference tournament with it being hosted at the Thomas & Mack Center. Whether it’s knocking off a higher seed or making a run to the championship, with EJ Harkless leading the charge for UNLV the Runnin’ Rebels are more than capable for getting hot with their own fans behind them in March.
Schedule the rest of the season:
Friday Feb. 24 vs. Air Force (CBS Sports Network, 7:30 p.m. MT)
Wednesday March 1 vs. Utah State (CBS Sports Network, 9 p.m. MT)
Saturday March 4 @ Nevada (Mountain West Network, 3 p.m. MT)
Air Force (14-15 | 5-11 MW | #159 NET | #154 KenPom)
With Air Force once starting conference play 3-2, the Falcons have lost eight out of their last 10 games. This isn’t to say Air Force can’t compete, because they have shown in several games the capability to win and have improved significantly as a basketball program over the past several years. Falling behind to the Air Force can get a team in the danger zone with the Princeton offense running the clock, but the Falcons have a tough time coming back in games in which they fall behind early.
Schedule the rest of the season:
Tuesday Feb. 24 @ UNLV (CBS Sports Network, 7:30 p.m. MT)
Saturday March 4 vs. San Jose State (Mountain West Network, 2 p.m. MT)
Colorado State (12-16 | 4-11 MW | #117 NET | #110 KenPom)
The Rams have been one of, if not the biggest, disappointments in the conference this season. Colorado State has not beat one of the teams in the top half of the Mountain West and has only tallied four wins overall in conference. Isaiah Stevens has been great since returning to the Rams earlier this season from injury, giving CSU fans a sliver of hope heading into the conference tournament.
Schedule the rest of the season:
Friday Feb. 24 vs. Wyoming (FS1, 7 p.m. MT)
Tuesday Feb. 28 @ San Jose State (CBS Sports Network, 9 p.m. MT)
Friday March 3 vs. New Mexico (FS1, 9 p.m. MT)
Wyoming (8-19 | 3-12 MW | #181 NET | #160 KenPom)
What is going on in Laramie? Some of the issues the Cowboys have faced have been out of their control, such as a preseason injury to Graham Ike which eventually forced the star forward to sit out the entire season. On the other hand, a trio of transfers from the Pac-12 jumped ship out of Wyoming before the season could even end. Overall, Wyoming has dealt with several injuries to key players this season and has been more unlucky in comparison to being a problem with Jeff Linder. I would expect the Cowboys to bounce back strong next season.
Schedule the rest of the season:
Friday Feb. 24 @ Colorado State (FS1, 7 p.m. MT)
Monday Feb. 27 vs. Nevada (CBS Sports Network, 7 p.m. MT)
Saturday March 4 @ San Diego State (CBS Sports Network, 8 p.m. MT)
