Last week it was announced that former five-star quarterback Malachi Nelson would be entering the transfer portal. Some Bronco fans felt that Nelson should have been the starting quarterback this season and were hopeful that he would have another chance to compete for the starting Quarterback next offseason with a new offensive coordinator. Instead, Maddux Madsen will likely be the starting quarterback for Boise State once again in 2025. A lot has been said about Madsen. Defenders will say that he’s clutch, a leader, that he takes care of the football and has been a great starter this season. Detractors have said that he doesn’t take care of the football. That he’s lucky, he has a weak arm and he doesn’t elevate the offense. What’s true and what’s a tall tale? Let’s dive into the numbers and see what story they tell about the enigmatic signal caller.
Maddux Madsen has a 62% completion percentage, 2,714 yards, 22 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and has added 224 yards rushing and 5 touchdowns on the ground. Madsen’s also been sacked just 10 times. The counting stats paint the picture of an extremely efficient Quarterback who takes care of the football. If you could guarantee your quarterback has a 22:3 TD:INT ratio you would take that every day of the week. His 209 passing yards per game certainly isn’t numbers you would expect from a high end Quarterback, but Boise’s ground attack has led the way this year. If someone were to look at the Box Scores they would likely say Madsen is a high caliber Quarterback who’s leading one of the 10 best offenses in college football. I went to Twitter/X and asked fans, what is it about Madsen that gives you pause? Let’s look at some of those responses and see if they hold water.
Narrative: Maddux gets lucky and should have more turnovers
One of Maddux’s strengths this season has been his ability to limit turnovers. Tom Fornelli created a stat called whoopsy daisy rate (WDR). WDR measures the percent of dropbacks/runs that a Quarterback throws on an interception or fumbles the ball (regardless of who recovers it). Madsen is #1 in all of college football with just a 0.65% WDR. That means he has an interception or fumble on 1 out of every 154 runs/dropbacks. It’s undeniable that Madsen has taken care of the football, but how much of that is luck?
Detractors say that Madsen has gotten lucky with dropped interceptions and that, if other teams could catch the ball, his Whoopsy Daisy Rate would be much higher and there’s credibility there. PFF tracks Turnover Worthy Plays (TWP). A TWP is any play that reasonably could have led to a turnover, this includes fumbles and dropped interceptions. Despite having only 3 interceptions on the season, Madsen has 15 TWP on the year. In the Mountain West Championship, Madsen had 0 interceptions and had a good game looking at the box score, yet PFF marked him for 3 TWP. How different does that game turn out if Madsen is 18/27 for 1 TD and 3 Interceptions? Madsen’s 15 TWP give him a TWP rate of 3.6%. That ranks 70th in FBS and in the 59th percentile. Is Madsen a turnover machine? Certainly not. Is he getting lucky? I think that’s fair to say. However, its worth noting that 3.6% is the exact same TWP rate as another Bronco legend, Brett Rypien.
Verdict: TRUE
Narrative: Maddux only plays well because defenses are keyed on Ashton Jeanty
This is another concern that popped up in my feed. Yes, Maddux Madsen is playing well this year with the best running back in Boise State history behind him, but how will he look next year when teams will be more worried about the pass game?
There is truth that Madsen is greatly benefited from the run game. Madsen’s been a much better passer this season off play action than in straight drop back. When in straight dropback, Madsen is completing 61% of his passes for 6.7 Yards per Attempt, 12 touchdowns and 2 interceptions (13 TWP, 4.9% TWP rate) and 9 of his sacks have come on straight dropbacks. Alternatively, when in play action, Madsen is completing 63% of his passes for 8.9 Yards per Attempts, 10 touchdowns and 1 interception (2 TWP, 1.3% TWP rate) and has taken just one sack. In terms of PFF grades, his Play Action grade is 80.4 and is his straight dropback grade is 70.7. There’s no doubt that Madsen is benefiting from the run game’s excellence, but I believe that’s part of what went into the decision to start Madsen over Malachi Nelson. Not all Quarterbacks are comfortable running play action and turning their back to the defense. Ben Roethlisberger famously refused to run play action under center because he wanted to see what the defense was doing post-snap.
Madsen’s excellence in Play Action isn’t typical. Madsen’s 1.3% TWP rate on Play Action is 17th best in FBS. His 10:1 TD:INT ratio is one of just 9 Quarterbacks with 10+ touchdowns and 1 or fewer interceptions on Play Action. Madsen’s converted 63 1st Downs off Play Action, 10th best in FBS. While he has limitations as a dropback passer, Madsen’s one of the Nation’s premier passers out of Play Action and that is a perfect fit for this offense. The Broncos are 2nd in FBSl in EPA/Run play. When you have a running game that is one of the most efficient in college football history, you want a Quarterback who compliments the running game, not an air raid QB.
Going forwards, is there cause for concern? The best answer is we don’t need. The offense is built around running the ball and play action. Koetter’s specialty isn’t in designing a college style spread offense. If Spencer Danielson decides to hire a playcaller who leans that way (assuming Koetter retires this offseason), we’ll find out if Madsen can run that type of offense. Until then? It’s hard to argue Madsen isn’t the perfect fit for the offense this year’s team wants to run
Verdict: SOMEWHAT TRUE, but probably not relevant
Narrative: Boise State is winning games in spite of Madsen
This one was interesting to me. Was Madsen really a net-negative on the offense in some of Boise State’s wins this year? With PFF grades, every player starts with a 60 grade and can score positively or negatively on each player. If you do your job every play, you’ll likely end up in the 65-70 range and players who had a negative impact on their team finish with a sub-60 grade. Madsen had a sub-60 grade in two games this season, Washington State and Nevada. Against Washington State Madsen had an interception and some turndowns that left big plays on the table, but the team hardly won in spite of Madsen. It was a blowout and the team didn’t ask Madsen to do much. In the Nevada game, Madsen had (I would argue) his worst game of the season. He missed throws and had multiple turnover worthy plays. Madsen finished 9/20 in a 28-21 win over UNR. This is the one game I think you could legitimately say the team won in spite of Maddux Madsen. Even still, Madsen took zero sacks against Nevada and had 7 first downs accounted for. Madsen did a great job of allowing the offense to lean on Jeanty and staying on schedule.
When discussing Madsen’s importance on the offense, his ability to avoid sacks cannot be understated. Madsen has 10 sacks on the season despite a rotating cast of offensive linemen due to injury. Madsen has a 10.2% Pressure to Sack rate. This is the rate of pressures that get turned into sacks and does a good job isolating the quarterback’s effect on sacks. Madsen’s 11th best in FBS. The one area where you could absolutely say Madsen is an elite Quarterback is his ability to avoid sacks. He knows how to avoid pressure, when to step up in the pocket and ultimately when to get the ball away before pressure gets home. Just as his ability to thrive of play action is perfect for this offense, so is his ability to avoid negative plays and stay on schedule. It’s impossible to be a run-first offense when your QB is putting you in 2nd and long and Madsen’s ability to turn pressures into non-sacks is paramount to what this offense wants to do
Verdict: NOT TRUE
Final Verdict
Where does that leave us? Is Maddux Madsen a good Quarterback? Should Boise State get someone in the portal to compete with him now that Nelson is gone?
The answer? Yes and yes. Maddux Madsen is a good Quarerback, in QBR he’s 27th in FBS and his PFF grade has him 58th. I think he’s likely somewhere in between those two in the 30-50 range. That’s a quality college Quarterback. Better than most G5 schools have. He’s not an NFL quarterback, he lacks elite mobility or arm talent needed at that level and he struggles with accuracy at times, but I think he is a good Quarterback who can run a system at an elite level and avoid making mistakes. He reminds me a lot of Brock Purdy in that way. He’s perfect for this team but is he perfect for a team that needs more from the Quarterback position?
If Boise State decides not to pursue a transfer portal Quarterback I would urge Bronco fans not to panic. This season, I felt that Madsen was the 4th best QB in the conference behind UNLV’s Hajj-Malik Williams, New Mexico’s Devon Dampier and Nevada’s Brendon Lewis. Notice a trend with those three? Williams graduated, Dampier transferred to Utah and Lewis is currently in the portal. Even if the Broncos don’t add a portal QB, Madsen will be the best returning Quarterback in the Mountain West.
However, in the Portal era teams should try to improve every position every offseason. Even at positions of strength its imperative to add depth and talent around your talent. With Malachi Nelson portaling out and 2025 QB class yielding no commitments at this time (former commit Hezekiah Millender flipped his commitment to Georgia) the Broncos should absolutely pursue the portal for at least a depth Quarterback option, but there’s no downside to bringing someone into push Madsen like they did with Nelson. If Madsen wins the job? Great. You know you have a high floor of Quarterback play and its possible he develops into a better quarterback. If Madsen loses the job? It means you probably have an outstanding Quarterback, ready to win another Mountain West Championship.
Madsen has become a divisive figure amongst Broncos fans. At the root of that divisiveness is a difference in expectations. Some fans are expecting the next Kellen/Rypien every time a Quarterback takes the field. Others just want the guy who will lead the team to victory. I mentioned how Maddux Madsen reminds me of Brock Purdy, but he reminds me of another former Bronco Quarterback as well. Another Quarterback who was a solid runner who had some accuracy and decision making problems, who was divisive among fans, yet found a way to win. Much like Jared Zabransky, Maddux Madsen will have a chance to cement himself in Boise State lore with a Fiesta Bowl win.
Let’s see if he’s the man for the job.