The Penn State Nittany Lions took down the SMU Mustangs on Saturday 38-10, clinching a spot in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State. The Lions were Big Ten runner ups and go into the Fiesta Bowl with a 12-2 record. Let’s dive into who Penn State is, what their strengths and weaknesses are and players to know for Penn State. There will be a longer preview article next week before kickoff, but enjoy this appetizer in the meantime.
How Penn State got here
Penn State finished the regular season 11-1 with their lone loss coming to Ohio State 20-13 coming back in November. The Nittany Lions earned a bid to the Big Ten Championship game where they fell to Oregon 37-45. Penn State was ranked 4th by the CFP committee and earned a 6-seed, matched up against SMU at home. The Nittany Lions dispatched the Mustangs handily in a game I thought the scoreline was a bit favorable for the home side (more on that later).
Penn State’s gotten here on the back of a balanced and well coached team. They’re coached by James Franklin who has been with the program since 2014. Penn State is 10th in Offensive SP+ (A predictive power rating that accounts for tempo and opponent) and 7th in Defensive SP+. Likewise, each side of the ball has a good pass/run balance. Offensively they are 2nd in Passing EPA and 16th in Rush EPA and defensively they are 6th in Rush EPA and 9th in Pass EPA. They’re a well-rounded football team without a clear way to attack them. That doesn’t mean they’re not without weaknesses, but it also means Boise State likely won’t have easy buttons they can push to win the game.
Strengths
- Lack of clear weakness
Looking at a heat map of Penn State’s analytics, there isn’t a lot of red. Their offense ranks top-25 in every EPA statistic provided by CFBInsiders except for average Field Position. Defensively, every category is top-35. Against elite competition the best way to win is finding a team’s weakness and magnifying it. Against Boise State, teams still likely try to test the Broncos’ suspect secondary. Penn State doesn’t have that one unit that is a clear problem for them.
- Bend but don’t break on defense
Penn State’s not one of the elite defenses in terms of suffocating offenses and not letting them move the football, they rank just 19th in defensive success rate, they are elite at making sure teams don’t turn drives in touchdowns. Penn State is 2nd in FBS in Points per Quality Possession allowed with 2.6. When teams get into Penn State territory its typically ending with a field goal or a turnover. This was amplified in Penn State’s first round game against SMU. SMU had 4 possessions get into Penn State territory in the first half. Those drives ended Turnover on Downs, Pick-Six, Punt, Interception. The Mustangs trailed 28-0 at halftime and never had a chance to get back into it. Turning good drives into touchdowns is key in beating Penn State, but easier said than done.
- Andy Kotelnicki
Kotelnicki is Penn State’s offensive coordinator and I believe he is one of the best in the nation. Last year, Penn State lacked explosiveness and relied on an elite defense to win football games. They bring in Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas and the offense has had a complete turnaround despite no major changes in personnel. Kotelnicki is excellent at scheming up explosive runs and making Quarterback Drew Allar’s job exceptionally easy. They do an exceptional job of leaning into strengths while staying creative. This team doesn’t have NFL difference makers on the outside but has the 2nd best EPA/Dropback because they design plays to get guys open and Allar is fantastic at seeing the field and finding the open man. Kotelnicki is one of the best in the business right now and I think will have bigger opportunities in the near future in the NFL or as a Head Coach (He was rumored for the West Virginia job before they hired Rich Rodriguez).
Weaknesses
I’ll preface this section by saying I think these are relative weaknesses. I’m not saying Penn State is bad in these areas. Moreso that they may just be good instead of great.
- Opponents can stay on schedule in the run game
While the run defense 6th in EPA/Rush, Penn State’s defense ranks 37th in rushing success rate allowed. Which means their defense will give you a 4 yard run but they’re excellent at keeping that 4 yard run from going for 20. Teams playing Penn State don’t face 3rd and long as often as you would against other elite teams. The Nittany Lions’ defense is in the 60th percentile in average 3rd down distance, so they’re just above average in an otherwise elite defense. Ashton Jeanty may struggle to hit 50 yard bomb, but he might be able to pound 4 yards at a time.
- Lack of difference makers on the outside
Penn State has one of the best receiving threats in the FBS in Tyler Warren (more on him later) but their WR room doesn’t have elite NFL talent like other Playoff teams. The best receiver in the room is Harrison Wallace III, who has taken a leap in his 4th year into a nice Wide Receiver but isn’t an elite WR1 option. Outside of Wallace, every Penn State WR has a PFF grade 63 or lower. That’s not good. Boise State’s biggest issue this year has been covering elite receivers and Penn State does not have the guys to expose that issue. It’s the one position group for Penn State that you could say has been bad this season and in my opinion, is their biggest obstacle in winning the National Championship this season.
- Troubles away from Beaver Stadium
At home this season, Penn State is 7-1 with an average margin of 22.5. This includes a 21-7 win over Illinois, 35-6 over Washington, 44-7 over Maryland and. The 38-10 First round win over SMU. The lone loss was a 13-20 loss to Ohio State that Penn State looked like the better team in my opinion. Away from home? Penn State is 5-1 with an average margin of 12. Exclude the two teams that fired their coaches this year (West Virginia and Purdue) and the average margin plumets to 2.75. Penn State has had struggles away from home this year, including a 33-30 Overtime win against 6-6 USC, a 26-25 win against 7-5 Minnesota and 37-45 loss in the Big Ten Championship to Oregon. Unless the Fiesta Bowl moves to Pennsylvania, I don’t think we see a Penn State team as crisp as the one we saw last week against SMU at home.
Players to know for Penn State
Penn State is led by two of the best players in the country and two likely first round picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. Tyler Warren is one of the most versatile and dynamic offensive players in the country. Warren is primarily a tight end, playing 362 snaps as a traditional tight end, but he’ll also move to the Slot (246 snaps), line up out wide as an X Wide Receiver (75 snaps), he’ll move into the backfield and lineup as a fullback (58 snaps) or even running back (5 snaps). Penn State even has a wildcat package for Warren where he’s taken 35 snaps as the Quarterback. He even had a play against USC where he lined up as the Center and caught a Touchdown. Tyler Warren does it all for Penn State and is the key to their offensive creativity. Warren has 1,292 scrimmage yards this season for 10 touchdowns and threw a touchdown pass for good measure. Want to slow down Penn State? Stop #44. (Good luck)
On the other side of the ball, Penn State has who I believe is the best defensive player in college football in Abdul Carter. Carter spent the past two seasons as a middle linebacker where he was a solid player. This year they moved Carter to defensive end and he’s been the most dominant pass rusher in College Football this season. Carter has 11 sacks on the season on 56 pressures (9th in FBS), his 22.3%-win rate is 4th best in FBS and 92.3 Pass Rush grade is 2nd in FBS. Carter is a one-man wrecking crew and it’s easy to see the comparisons to NFL star Micah Parsons. Parsons also went to Penn State, converted from linebacker to defensive end and also happens to wear #11. Carter dominated SMU finishing with 5 pressures a sack and an 83.1 Pass Rush grade. Carter takes a majority of his snaps on the right side so expect a lot of “best on best” with Carter against Casey. Abdul Carter started the year slowly but since an 8-pressure performance against Illinois in Week 5, no one has come close to stopping Carter. Again… I think he’s the best defensive player in College Football and if I were the NFL team with the #1 pick, I would strongly consider taking Carter.
Penn State is loaded with talent (as most Top-5 teams are): Drew Allar is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are one of the best RB duos in the nation, Kobe King is a future NFL linebacker and A.J. Harris is one of the best corners in the Big Ten, but Penn State runs through Tyler Warren on offense and Abdul Carter on defense.
If Boise State slows them down, they have a shot.
Next week, we’ll breakdown the matchups and dive into what Boise State needs to do to pull off the upset and move to the CFP Semifinals at the Orange Bowl in Miami. For now, be sure to follow Bronco Nation News for all the best Fiesta Bowl coverage.