The Boise State men’s basketball team is seeking its fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance for the first time in school history. After a 13-5 start (5-2 in MW play), the Broncos are on the outside looking in on most bracket projections. Friday will be one of Boise’s last chances for a marquee Quad 1 win and a chance to get back in the at-large picture. New Mexico is 14-4 (6-1 in MW play) and 62nd in the NET rankings, and the winner will take sole possession of 2nd place in the Mountain West standings. Boise State has beaten New Mexico in 7 of their last 9 games, but are 4-8 all-time when playing at the Pit. Let’s dive into some storylines and numbers to know before Friday’s tilt in Albuquerque.
What to expect from New Mexico
This is Richard Pitino’s fourth year in charge of the New Mexico program and this year’s team has all the hallmarks of a Richard Pitino Lobos squad. This team plays fast (8th fastest team per KenPom), they’re athletic (17th in Block rate) and they want to force turnovers (49th in forced turnover rate). This squad is better defensively than offensively and will pose a tough matchup for Boise State’s improving offense. Donovan Dent is back from last year’s NCAA Tournament squad and is one of the best point guards in the conference, and his matchup with Alvaro Cardenas will be the marquee matchup to watch. Dent and Cardenas are 1st and 2nd in assist rate, and there will be no shortage of elite passing in Friday’s matchup. When New Mexico has lost this season, it’s largely been due to a lack of scoring. The Lobos are 215th in effective FG%, including the conference’s second-worst three-point shooting squad in conference play. If the Broncos want to nab their second straight road win against New Mexico, they’ll need to show the defensive intensity we saw against Wyoming.
Two Tuesday night games with wildly different results
Boise State had arguably their best performance of the season in Tuesday night’s win against Wyoming. The Broncos dominated the Cowboys 96-55 in a game that wasn’t even that close. Everything went well for Leon Rice’s squad. The Broncos shot 59% from the floor, including 50% from three, out-rebounded Wyoming and won the turnover battle. At one point, the Broncos led 71-27.
Meanwhile, as Bronco Nation News was wrapping up our postgame show at ExtraMile arena, San Jose State knocked down a game-winning shot with 2 seconds left to take down New Mexico. The Lobos were coming off their best win of the season, a 62-48 win against San Diego State, and followed it up with one of their worst games of the season. New Mexico had been in the field for a majority of projected brackets coming into the week, but a loss against the Spartans is a Quad 3 loss for New Mexico (their second Q3 loss this season). New Mexico is now (likely) on the wrong side of the bubble.
After the win against Wyoming, Leon Rice was asked a question about the timing of some of their home/road games this season, and Leon responded, “I always say, it’s now who you play, it’s when you play them.” If Tuesday night is any indication, the Broncos are getting hot at the right time and could be getting a colling of Lobos squad.
Boise State’s offense is clicking
Speaking of getting hot, Boise State’s offense has found its footing. For the third straight game, Boise State’s offense scored more than 1.25 points per possession. For context, anything above 1.1 is considered good. 1.2 and above is elite. Over this three game stretch, Alvaro Cardenas has turned into an efficiency monster with 25 assists and 2 turnovers. The Broncos are crashing the offensive glass (30 offensive rebounds) and finally starting to knock down threes (27/52 over the past two games). The result? The Broncos have the #1 offense in Mountain West play and it’s not even close. Boise State’s 121.3 KenPom adjusted efficiency margin outpaces Utah State (2nd at 116.9) and UNLV (3rd at 109.5) by wide margins. Since 2025 started, the Broncos’ offense is 5th in Bart Torvik’s adjusted efficiency metric. The Broncos don’t need to be top-5 good, but if they can remain an elite offense, they’re going to win a lot of games down the stretch.
It will be especially important for Boise State to continue to shoot well against New Mexico. The Lobos have a top-50 defense in college basketball, but they have one fatal flaw: they give up a lot of open threes. New Mexico allows opponents to shoot 37.5% from three point range this season, 339th in college basketball. In Tuesday’s loss to San Jose State, the Spartans shot 10/22 (45.5) from three and was one of the key factors in New Mexico getting upset. New Mexico does almost everything else on defense at a really high level, so I think the Broncos will need to make at least 10 threes on Friday if they want to come back to Boise with a win.
Emmanuel Ugbo emerged at the right time
For the first time in his collegiate career, Emmanuel Ugbo got to start on Tuesday night against Wyoming. He rewarded Leon’s faith with a 7-point, 7 rebound performance highlighted by tough-nosed defense and exceptionally high energy. In recent weeks, Boise State has struggled to figure out who their guy is at center. O’Mar Stanley was the starter to open the season, but has struggled to score efficiently and has been mired in foul trouble game after game (He had 4 fouls in just 10 minutes against Wyoming). Leon toyed with Dylan Anderson at center, but his struggles defensively and rebounding led the coaching staff to look elsewhere. Tyson Degenhart has played a lot of time at the five, with tremendous offensive success, but those lineups have no rim protection and have gotten bullied by bigger teams. Emmanuel Ugbo gets the call up and did exactly what was needed.
There’s a lot to like about what Ugbo brings to the table. He’s an excellent rebounder, with his rebounding numbers being very similar to Stanley’s. Defensively, he’s not quite the caliber of defender that Stanley is, but he’s clearly the second-best interior defender on the team. Offensively, he’s shooting an efficient 57% from two-point range, and is an ideal roller off ball screens with Alvaro Cardenas. Against Wyoming he flashed impressive hands on some tough passes from Cardenas, and consistently attacks the offensive glass, finishing with 2 offensive rebounds. I think the best version of this Boise State team still has Stanley at the five giving All-Mountain West caliber play, but while he’s in the midst of his slump, Ugbo provides an intriguing alternative. Maybe most importantly, he’s five extra fouls. Both Stanley and Ugbo tend to get into foul trouble, so having two players capable of filling in at center gives you a reliable backup plan when someone does foul out.
Whether its Ugbo or Stanley getting the start on Friday, they’ll have their hands full with New Mexico’s Nelly Junior Joseph. Junior Joseph is one of the Mountain West’s best rim protectors and arguably the best rebounding big man in the conference. One thing I’ll be watching for is whether the staff decides to bring help when Junior Joseph gets touches in the post. He’s an excellent scorer, especially when turning over his left shoulder to a jump-hook. He has wide shoulders and a strong lower half that allow him to create space on any post defender. Ugbo and Stanley will need to be up to the challenge on Friday.
Boise State wins this game if:
Boise State makes threes. The teams who have knocked off New Mexico have been hot from three, a combined 37/90 (41%) in those games. There’s optimism with the way Boise State has shot the past two games, and with the way New Mexico likes to push in transition, Boise State’s offensive rebounding should lead to opportunities for open second-chance threes. There’s plenty of good shooters on this Boise State roster, one or two of them need to step up again on Friday.
Boise State loses this game if:
New Mexico gets easy baskets in transition. One of the reason Pitino likes this team to run in transition so much is because they’re not a good half-court offense. Their lack of three-point shooters leaves little space to operate in the half-court. Many possessions end with Nelly Junior Joseph getting a post touch or Donovan Dent taking his man off the dribble. Boise State’s backcourt needs to stay disciplined, and make sure the Lobos can’t get easy buckets in transition.