For the players in Saturday’s CBC Semifinals match between Boise State and Nebraska, the stakes have never been higher. Literally. The monetary stakes are unlike anything we’ve seen in college athletics before. A win would net the winners $50,000 in NIL revenue and a chance to play for the $300,000 grand prize in the CBC finals.
The Broncos got here by dispatching George Washington and Butler with red-hot offense. After a slow start against George Washington, the Broncos scored 86 points in the final 32 minutes, and scored 100 points against Butler in the quarterfinals. The 100-point outing was the most Boise State has scored against a D1 opponent since putting up 106 against San Jose State on December 31, 2020. (This game was played in Phoenix, AZ at a rec center gym because Santa Clara County banned contact sports within county limits… COVID was a wild time y’all). They’ll face off against the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who got this far via victories over Arizona State and Georgetown.
Nebraska made the CBC with a 17-14 record, finishing 7-13 in Big Ten play. In early February, the Cornhuskers were 16-8 and a consensus 9-seed via the BracketMatrix, but finished the season 1-6 and ultimately missed out on the Big Ten Tournament. They’re coached by former Chicago Bulls head coach, Fred Hoiberg. Hoiberg is in his sixth season with the Cornhuskers, and notably coached former Boise State superstar Chandler Hutchison for 24 games in his rookie season before being fired.
Offensively, everything for Nebraska runs through Brice Williams. Williams is scoring 20.5 points per game on 47% shooting, and is a true four tool scorer. From three, he shoots 37% on over 5 attempts per game. He is a capable midrange scorer and excels at getting downhill, finishing around the rim and getting to the free throw line. When he gets to the line? He’s an 89% free throw shooter. He’s a great passer, he doesn’t turn the ball over, and in two games in the CBC so far, he’s averaging 29 points per game on 60% shooting, including 9/19 from beyond the arc. Boise State’s defensive gameplan will revolve around how to slow down Williams.
Aside from Williams, Juwan Gary is a talented in-and-out scorer, and those two combine to take over 50% of the shots when they’re on the floor. When the offense isn’t running through Williams, Gary is the one with the ball in his hands. The other three spots on the floor are occupied by a rotating cast of role players whose minutes vary based on matchups and performance. The Cornhuskers’ offensive performance comes down to how well their two stars are playing. When Williams and Gary are on, they’re one of the best offenses in the country, but if Boise State can slow down one (or both) of their stars, I think they have a great chance to win.
Defensively, Nebraska has a well-rounded and well-coached unit. Currently 42nd in KenPom’s defensive adjusted efficiency margin, the Cornhuskers defense predicates itself on denying the rim and forcing teams to take and make threes. 46.1% of opponents shots are from three, 17th highest rate in the country, and 39% of opponents’ points come from three, 8th highest rate in the country. Expect Boise State to attack downhill and open up kickout opportunities for Meadow, Carmichael and their other shooters. One of Nebraska’s strengths defensively is the versatility they play with. They have lots of different sizes and body types to throw at offenses, depending on the matchup they prefer. When defending ball screens, they employ a plethora of different looks. Against Arizona State in the first round of the CBC, I saw them use switches, drop coverage, blitzes and hard hedge and recovery defenses to slow down the Sun Devils. Employing so many types of defenses can turn the game into a chess match for a skilled point guard like Alvaro Cardenas. For the Broncos to win, Cardenas’ ability to continually diagnose Nebraska’s pick and roll coverages and find answers will be critical.
While the Cornhuskers are a strong defensive unit, they aren’t elite at any one thing. They’re above average in rim protection and slightly below average in three-point defense. They’re a good, but not elite rebounding team. They force turnovers more than average, but not in the top-100. This is in part because of the lineup versatility I mentioned earlier. Leon Rice will be tasked with recognizing the personnel on the floor for Nebraska, responding, and finding matchups that Boise State can win throughout the game.
As I project how this game plays out, there are two variables that will likely dictate the outcome. How does Boise State guard Nebraska’s stars? Can the Broncos stay hot from three? Throughout the season, we’ve talked about Boise State’s issues defending on the perimeter, and I think Williams and Gary pose a challenging matchup for Boise State’s personnel. Given their troubles guarding players such as Nique Clifford and Nevada’s Kobe Sanders, I struggle to see the Broncos stopping Williams and Gary. So, I think this game comes down to Boise State’s three-point shooting. When Nebraska gets beat, it’s from the three-point line. If the Broncos make 10 or more threes, I think they get the win. The good news for Bronco Nation? The Broncos made 11 in Wednesday’s win against Butler on just 24 attempts. If Tyson Degenhart, Andrew Meadow and Julian Bowie stay hot from three, expect to see the Broncos playing for the Crown and $300,000 on Sunday.
Nathan Carroll is a part-time contributor for Bronco Nation News and host of the TBA Basketball Podcast. Nathan works for Pro Football Focus as part of their data collection team, specializing in charting player data at the FBS level. Previously, he graduated from Boise State’s Honors College with a degree in Quantitative Economics and worked 5 years in Boise State’s athletic department. Follow him on X at Nathan_26_
