With the National Championship over a week in the rear-view mirror, College Football is in the thick of “way-too-early” prediction season. Way-too-early CFP predictions, way-too-early Top 25’s, way-too-early conference predictions; so many early predictions, why not let BNN get in on the fun? As with all way-too-early lists, I can’t be held accountable for any of these predictions… Unless I get one correct, in which case I will take a victory lap. With that said, I’ll try to go 4-for-4.
Boise State’s secondary takes a leap in 2025
This season will go down as one of the best in program history, but Boise State wasn’t a flawless team. The secondary in 2024 was a problem group all season long, including in their Fiesta Bowl loss to Penn State. The unit finished with just 5 interceptions on the season, were 83rd in EPA/Pass and dead last in passing explosiveness allowed. Seyi Oladipo, Rodney Robinson and Alexander Teubner are gone, but the Broncos bring back four starters in Ty Benefield, Zion Washington, A’Marion McCoy and Jeremiah Earby; plus, Davon Banks who played over 400 snaps for the Broncos. In addition to the returnees, Boise State’s added Arizona transfer Demetrius Freeney and JUCO additions Jaylen Webb, Sherrod Smith and Samuel Brooks.
Demario Warren and Erik Chinander will be rip with choice in the secondary in 2025, and I think they find the right starters to take a leap. The two guys I’m most confident in are A’Marion McCoy and Ty Benefield. McCoy had just one interception but finished the season with a Mountain West-leading 11 pass breakups. McCoy was good more often than for the Broncos not, and finished with a team-best 83.6 coverage grade (per PFF). For Benefield, 2024 was a bit of a disappointing season. In Fall camp, Benefield was pegged as the next great Boise State safety, and the successor to J.L. Skinner. Benefield was good, finishing with a 70.0 PFF grade, but struggled as a tackler (16 missed tackles) and struggled in coverage. Benefield led the team with 2 interceptions, but had just 2 pass breakups and allowed 6 touchdowns. I’m betting on Benefield going into 2025 though. The staff continues to rave about his potential and his work ethic. Normally, coaches don’t loft that sort of praise on a player unless there’s something there, and I’m betting that Chinander and Spencer Danielson have an eye for talent in this spot.
Led by Benefield and McCoy, I expect Boise State to find the right guys to play and finish as one of the best units in the Mountain West. I think being a top-40 team in EPA/Pass is realistic for this group, and that type of leap should put the Broncos in playoff contention once again.
Kage Casey is top-50 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft
Last December, Ashton Jeanty announced he would be returning to Boise State for his junior year after a dominant sophomore season, and the running back proceeded to have the best season in program history. When Kage Casey announced he would be back at Boise State for his junior season, it didn’t grab the headlines that Jeanty did, but he may end up being just as impactful.
Casey was Boise State’s second-best player this past season and was already on the draft radar of plenty of scouts. One NFL front office employee I spoke to said their franchise had an early Day-3 grade on him had he declared. Casey decided to come back to school to elevate his draft stock, and I think he does just that. The 2026 class has a couple of offensive tackles solidified at the top (Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor and Miami’s Francis Mauigoa), but the guys likely to go in the back half of the first and beginning of the second round are murkier. Casey already has elite film (83.4 PFF grade) and NFL size (6-5, 310 pounds); given another year to develop and lead the Broncos offensive line, I think Casey emerges as one of college football’s elite tackles. In 2024, 8 offensive tackles went in the first round. As long as Casey emerges as one of the top 5-6 offensive tackles in the draft, Top-50 should be well within the realm of outcomes for Casey. If it happens, it would be the first time Boise State has had top-50 picks in back-to-back drafts since the 2010-2012 drafts, when Kyle Wilson (29th in 2010), Titus Young (44th in 2011) and Shea McClellin (19th in 2012) and Doug Martin (31st in 2012) did it.
Jayden Virgin-Morgan takes a step back in production
Jayden Virgin-Morgan took a leap in 2024, finishing with a team-high 10 sacks. The sophomore defensive end flashed elite athleticism and developed understanding of space on stunts that perfectly fits with defensive coordinator Erik Chinander’s attacking scheme. Virgin-Morgan’s performance led to an All-Mountain West selection and has him on early 2026 NFL draft boards.
I think there’s a step back in production next season, and the word I want to emphasize here is production. While his 10 sack season is encouraging, Virgin-Morgan had just 43 pressures, good for a 23.3% sack to pressure (S2P) ratio. Average is generally around 17-18% and not usually sticky for pass rushers. For example, in 2023 Ahmed Hassanein had a 12.5-sack season on 53 pressures (23.6% sack to pressure ratio). In 2024 he had more pressures (62) but his sack production backslid to a 9.5-sack season (15.3% S2P). Despite being more disruptive in 2024, Hassanein’s sack numbers went down. I expect a similar “regression” from Jayden Virgin-Morgan in 2025. I think there’s a good chance Virgin-Morgan is more disruptive in 2025, I expect him to have 50+ pressures, but the odds of maintaining such a lofty S2P rate historically aren’t great. If the season ends and Virgin-Morgan has single digit sacks, just double check the pressures and make sure it was a regression of his performance, and not just poor sack luck.
Boise State wins the Mountain West in their final season in the conference
This one isn’t much of a hot-take, the Broncos have been picked to win the Mountain West every season since joining the conference, but it’s a prediction I want to get on record regardless.
The Broncos are expected to return 7 starters on offense and 9 of 14 defensive players who played at least 400 snaps in 2024. It’s impossible to replace a Heisman Trophy caliber player like Ashton Jeanty, but the trio of Sire Gaines, Breezy Dubar and Malik Sherrod should soften the landing. The Broncos will likely take a small step back in 2025, but I don’t think there is anyone prepared to take the mantle atop the Mountain West.
UNLV is the trendiest candidate, but will have to replace 9 of their 10 All-Mountain West players, including quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams and defensive player of the year, Jackson Woodard. On top of the personnel losses, the Rebels lost head coach Barry Odom to Purdue and offensive coordinator Brennan Marion to Sacramento State. Consider me a skeptic. Elsewhere, Colorado State was third in the Mountain West last season and should have one of the best defenses in the Mountain West again, but was the benefactor of the easiest schedule in the Mountain West last season. Fresno brings in a new head coach and lost Mikey Keene to Michigan, San Jose State is coming off an encouraging bowl season in Ken Niumatalolo’s first season, but loses triple crown winning wide receiver Nick Nash, and Air Force, who missed a bowl game in 2024, is coming off their worst season since 2018. I think the Broncos, despite their losses, should be a step ahead the rest of the conference.
The league didn’t make it easy; the Broncos will play most of the projected top of the league in 2025, but Boise State does get UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State at home, and avoids the Mountain West’s toughest places to play. No trip to Fresno or Laramie or Oahu, instead the Broncos gets four opponents not typically known for a raucous home environment. Combine some favorable home/road splits with the best roster in the Mountain West, and I think the Broncos three-peat in 2025.
