The Boise State men’s basketball team is off to a 5-2 start, coming off a heartbreaking loss to Boston College 63-61 in the title game of the Cayman Islands Classic. The Broncos led by nine with 8:27 left before giving up a 15-1 run and ultimately losing on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer. If that shot rims out Bronco Nation is flying high, ecstatic to be 6-1 and looking like a tournament team. Instead, Bronco Nation is feeling uneasy about where this team stands.
Leon Rice isn’t new to slow starts. Last season, the Broncos started 3-3 before finishing 22-10 and getting an invited to the NCAA Tournament. In 2022-2023 the Broncos started 1-2 with losses to South Dakota State and Charlotte and then finished 24-9 and got a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament. And in 2021-2022, the Broncos started 3-4 before finishing 27-7 and winning the Mountain West Tournament for the first time. History suggest that Leon Rice will figure things out and get the Broncos to 20+ wins.
Here are four ways I envision the Broncos improving and getting back to the Big Dance:
Keep O’Mar Stanley on the floor
The obvious answer for the Broncos to take a leap is keeping O’Mar Stanley out of foul trouble and on the floor. Stanley has yet to play 30 minutes in a game this season and in four games against likely Q1/2 opponents he is averaging 4.5 fouls per game and playing just under 20 minutes per game. Stanley’s foul trouble is a byproduct of his play style, he committed 4.8 fouls per 40 minutes and fouled out of 5 games last season, but the start of this season has been an exaggeration of normal foul issues.
Stanley is the key to what the Broncos want to be defensively. Despite being only 6’-8”, Stanley is excellent at using his length to block shots and create turnovers by getting in passing lanes. Given normal playing time you would expect Stanley to lead the team in blocks and be near the top of the team in steals. As result of his foul troubles the Broncos rank 307th in the nation in block rate (the percentage of possessions they get a block) and 294th in turnover forced rate. Without Stanley, the Broncos are struggling to steal possessions defensively and its leading to games that trend towards “last shot wins.”
Stanley’s never going to be a player who finishes week after week with two or less fouls, but if the Broncos can get an extra 10 minutes a night out of Stanley the ship likely rights itself quickly.
Start knocking down threes
We knew coming into the year that the Broncos likely wouldn’t be an elite shooting team. Losing a 40% shooter like Chigbuzo Agbo is nearly impossible to replace. Dylan Anderson, Alvaro Cardenas and Andrew Meadow were new additions to the starting lineup that would ideally lead to a better three point shooting team, but the results haven’t translated yet. As a team, the Broncos are shooting 32.2% from three (204th in the Nation). Javan Buchanan is leading the way shooting 8/16 from three, Julian Bowie has been efficient off the bench going 6/15 from three to start his college career and Dylan Anderson has been efficient on a small sample size (3/4 from 3, more on him later), but outside of those guys almost everyone is underperforming expectations.
Alvaro Cardneas was a 39% shooter last season, this year he’s 5/18. Tyson Degenhart is a career 33.6% shooter and he’s off to a dreadful 2/18 start. We have heard time and time again from Leon Rice and other players that Andrew Meadow is a guy they want taking threes every game but he’s just 9/29 to start the year. It’s not just that some of the Broncos stars are shooting worse than expected, it’s that they’re nowhere near the level they’ve played in the past. I don’t think Boise State is lacking shooters, all 10 rotation players are guys that are comfortable shooting from distance, but the Broncos need to see some of those shots start falling.
Clarify Dylan Anderson’s role
When Dylan Anderson announced his commitment to Boise State it was seen as one of the biggest recruiting gets in program history. Anderson was a former top-50 recruit who had flashed special offensive ability in High School and in limited minutes at Arizona. Early in his Boise State career Anderson has been fantastic as a pick n’ pop threat and proven to be a great passer in the high post. Anderson gives the Broncos defense a true rim protector and someone who can match up with the length and athleticism of college basketball’s elite teams. Anderson has stared all 6 games, yet is only getting 15 minutes per game and hasn’t played more than 20 minutes all season. Anderson isn’t a perfect player, his lack of foot speed makes him less switchable than lineups with Stanley/Ugbo at the five and he’s been turnover prone at times this year; however, I’m not sure why Leon’s opting to make him the 8th man in terms of minutes.
As currently utilized, Dylan Anderson will start the game with the other three stars, get a couple of actions with Cardenas as a screener and then ride the bench the rest of the game. I’m not suggesting Anderson needs to be playing 30 minutes a game and being the 2nd leading scorer, but I do think he needs to have a more clearly defined role. Leon Rice ran into this same issue last season with Cam Martin. Martin started the first 6 games of the season before moving to the bench with Stanley taking over the starting center spot. Martin thrived running the bench unit in a more ball dominant role. I think Anderson and Cardenas ball screens are instant offense and maybe Anderson moves to the bench where he can be a larger part of the offense with Stanley or Degenhart on the bench.
Regardless of what it looks like the Dylan Anderson minutes look clunky right now. His role feels forced and the lineups with Anderson, Stanley and Degenhart are struggling to cover shooters. Leon Rice will tinker with lineups and I think he’ll find the right role for Anderson in the coming weeks.
Beat Saint Mary’s
I’ve dug into the X’s and O’s of what Boise State needs to do to get back to the NCAA Tournament, but there is resume building to be done as well. The Broncos are sitting at 1-1 in potential Quad 1 games and the Boston College loss will likely end up a Quad 2 or Quad 3 loss. The Broncos need marquee wins in the non-conference and their best bet is going to be against Saint Mary’s in Idaho Falls on December 14. The game is considered a neutral site which means it likely is a Quad 1 opportunity for Boise State. If the Broncos fall to the Gaels they will be doing most of their resume building in conference play; this was true the past few seasons for Boise State and it led to the Broncos being under seeded by two seed lines relative to the BracketMatrix in each of the past two seasons. It may not seem like much, but 2-1 in Q1 is very different than 1-2 in the eyes of the committee and a win . KenPom currently projects that matchup as a relative coinflip giving the Broncos a 49% chance at victory. There’s a lot of season ahead but do not understate the importance of beating Saint Mary’s in a couple of weeks. Torvik (another basketball analytics tool, similar to KenPom) gives the Broncos a 36% chance at an At-Large bid with a win over the Gaels. With a loss, the Broncos fall to a 9% chance. Games with that much leverage are few and far between in college basketball and December 14 presents one of those rare opportunities.
