While the world was debating the results of Heisman Trophy voting, and whether or not Boise State star Ashton Jeanty should have won, the men’s basketball team was in a dogfight for their lives against Saint Mary’s. The Broncos were 6-3 and facing their most important test so far. A loss would give the Broncos just a 3% chance at an At-Large bid (per Bart Torvik’s Teamcast). The Broncos pushed the Gaels to overtime and eventually found a 67-65 victory in a hard fought defensive affair. Tyson Degenhart led the way with 19 points including two clutch free throws that pushed the game to overtime. Alvaro Cardneas’ played one of his best games as a Bronco going 5/8 with 4 assists and just 1 turnover in 41 minutes. Saint Mary’s won’t be the Broncos biggest win so far (that was the Clemson win at home), but it is certainly the most important because of what it means for the Broncos at-large hopes. The Gaels currently sit at 43 in the NET rankings, meaning Saturday’s victory is a Quad 1 for the Broncos.
Presently, the Broncos would be on the outside looking in of the NCAA Tournament. The Broncos are 55th in KenPom and 50th in the NET rankings. The Broncos are 2-1 against Quad 1 opponents, but 1-2 against Quad 2 and 3 opponents. It’s not the type of resume that gets you a tournament bid, but it is a start you can work with. Leon Rice is in familiar territory with suspect non-conference results and a chance to play into the field during conference play. The past three seasons the Broncos entered conference play ranked 57th, 60th and 64th in KenPom. They went into the tournament ranked 29th, 32nd and 37th. If history is any indicator, Leon Rice knows how to win in conference play and elevates Boise State’s profile. On paper, this is the best a Broncos team has looked in non-conference play since 2013, when the Broncos finished non-con ranked 46th in KenPom. That Broncos team sputtered down the stretch finishing 9-8 and losing in the First Four to La Salle. Despite concerns over some poor performances (namely losses to Washington State and Boston College), the Broncos are further along than the past three tournament teams have been at this point.
Moving forward, the name of the game is winning. Both Torvik and KenPom have the Broncos projected at 14-6 in Mountain West play, which would put the Broncos at 22-9 heading into the Conference Tournament and squarely on the bubble. Torvik has a tool called Teamcast that allows you to play with a team’s schedule/power rating and how it affects their tournament odds. If you plug in a power rating of 33rd (Boise’s average Power rating the past three years) the Broncos project to 15-5 and a 65% chance at a bid. Plug in a power rating of 22nd (a 28 spot rise, the average rise Leon’s teams have had during conference play the past 3 seasons) the Broncos project to 16-4 and a 92% chance at a bid (and likely another 8/9 seed).
What does that all mean? If this team doesn’t improve the Broncos likely end their NCAA Tournament streak at three years. If the Broncos can improve throughout conference play like they have the past three years, there’s a good chance the Broncos are lingering on the right side of the bubble come Selection Sunday. For fans keeping track at home, the magic number is likely 16 wins. If the Broncos can go 16-4 in conference play (a tall task, but doable) I think they’re safely in the field. 15 wins will be an anxious selection Sunday, but I think gets the Broncos in. 14 wins and I think the Broncos will need to go on a deep run in Las Vegas to get their bid.
One thing to note as we project the Broncos tournament outcomes, the Mountain West is much weaker this year than in past years. In 2024 the Mountain West was a 6-bid league and in 2022 and 2023, a 4-bid league. This year’s conference looks much weaker. As of December 17, there are zero top-40 KenPom teams in the conference and the Broncos are the second highest ranked team in the NET rankings at 50 (Utah State leads the way at 20th). The Aggies are 10-0 and have one Quad 1 win but have played the 256th ranked schedule in the country. Wins are always nice, but quality wins are what hold up in March (especially for fans of opposing teams). This year’s Mountain West is likely a 2-3 bid league which makes the margins for error much tighter for teams like Boise State looking to build a tournament resume. It also means the road to 16 wins will be a bit easier than in years past. Last year Colorado State finished 7th in the standings and ended up winning an NCAA tournament game. This year, the projected 7th place team (UNLV) has a similar power rating to last year’s Wyoming squad. Wyoming beat the 2024 Cowboys by 20 in Laramie. The league is weaker 1-7 this year than in year’s past. If the Broncos are a team worth an at-large bid they should be able to finish top-3 in the conference and win 15 or more games. While going 13-5 in the Mountain West the past two seasons felt like a triumph for the Broncos. Going 14-6 against this quality of Mountain West would feel like a disappointment.
There’s a lot of basketball left to play, Boise State finishes their non-conference slate tonight with Texas Southern at home. The Tigers are typically a competitive team in the SWAC but this year’s squad is 0-8 against D1 opponents to start the season. The Broncos are 22 point favorites per KenPom and anything other than a blowout win would be a disappointment. Mountain West play starts on Saturday for the Broncos, when 3-8 Air Force comes to ExtraMile Arena. It’s about the time of year where Leon figures out his roster and starts to get the squad playing their best ball. Against Saint Mary’s, RJ Keene got his first start as a Bronco and, despite scoring zero points, Leon said it was one of his best games in college. Could it be the move that gets this team to find their identity? Time will tell and if Leon can get this team clicking like in past years, Saturday’s win should be the turning point in another NCAA Tournament season.
