Boise State saw its season end on New Year’s Eve with a 31-14 loss to Penn State. The scoreline didn’t accurately reflect how tight the game was. The Broncos had more yards/play and led in EPA/play, but Boise State shot itself in the foot too many times. The Broncos finished with four turnovers, two missed field goals and 13 penalties. Penn State is a tough team to beat, and they’re almost impossible to beat when you beat yourself. Penn State played well and deserves a ton of praise for their performance, but you all came to read about Boise State, so here are five takeaways I had from Boise State’s Fiesta Bowl performance.
Boise State didn’t do enough to help Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty had his least productive game of the season against Penn State, finishing 104 yards rushing on 30 carries and 2 fumbles (he also had 3 catches for 22 yards). Ashton would tell you it wasn’t his best performance, but I thought the bigger issue was the help around him. Ashton Jeanty had 16 missed tackles forced and 81 yards after contact. He did his usual award-winning things, but Penn State gave him no room to breathe.
No one had a good game run blocking. Boise State didn’t have a single player with a higher run blocking grade than 61. 60 is the mark that every player starts at, and what a player receives if they didn’t run block at all. Penn State’s linebackers (particularly Tony Rojas and Amin Vanover) were exceptional in pursuit and consistently out leveraged Boise State’s run blockers. Boise State’s tight ends in particular struggled with Penn State’s size and athleticism. Matt Lauter finished with a 40.3 run blocking grade and Matt Wagner had a 50.0 run block grade.
Which brings me to the final issue with the run game in the Fiesta Bowl, I didn’t think the coaching staff did enough to get Jeanty favorable looks. I’ve been critical of the offense’s lack of creativity all season and I thought that was amplified on Tuesday night. Boise State was content running into 8-man boxes and betting on their O-Line and tight ends to do their jobs. They didn’t. Jeanty’s best run of the night was on a 3rd and 21 where they split four receivers out wide and got a 5-man box to run against. I would’ve liked for Boise State to run more spread looks to force Penn State into lighter boxes; likewise, Boise State didn’t use sweeps or RPO to force Penn State’s linebackers into conflict. The one time Boise showed that sort of look, they motioned Jeanty out wide and handed it off to Tyler Crowe for an 8-yard touchdown run. Jeanty’s been phenomenal all year, and had another great game individually against Penn State, but I thought the scheme could’ve done more to get more production in the run game.
Penn State exposed weaknesses and limited strengths
We’ve known all season that Boise State has been a poor tackling team all season and Penn State’s running backs amplified that issue. Boise State had 16 missed tackles on Tuesday, many of which led to chunk plays for Penn State that kept the chains moving. Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton are two of the best backs in the country and they combined for 29 carries and 221 yards. Culminating in a 58-yard touchdown run by Singleton that iced the game. On that play, it was Seyi Oladipo who missed the tackle that led to Singleton’s score. It’s hard to fix tackling midseason, teams typically don’t want to be live midweek and risk injuries during practice, but it needs to be a point of emphasis this offseason. As Boise State continues to pursue the mountaintop of college football there will be more running backs like Allen and Singleton, and Boise State will need to be able to tackle them to have a chance.
Conversely, Boise State has been elite all season at finishing drives with touchdowns. Coming into the game, Boise State had been scoring 4.6 points per quality possession (a quality possession is defined as any drive in which you have 1st and 10 inside the opponents 40-yard line or ends in a touchdown.) Boise State had just 2.3 points per quality possession on Tuesday, scoring just 14 points on 6 quality possessions. On the four drives that didn’t end in touchdowns, the Broncos missed two field goals and threw two interceptions (one of which was after a Prince Strachan touchdown was called back for penalty). One of the best red zone offenses in the country couldn’t find answers against Penn State’s defense. Credit to Penn State, but the Broncos need to find points in those spots. Had the Broncos met their season average in those spots, the Broncos would’ve scored 27 points and the outcome of the game feels much different. Penn State did what great teams do. They exposed Boise State’s weaknesses and neutralized their strengths. Boise State adjusted well, but it wasn’t enough to get a win.
Those two points summarized the loss for Boise State and where things went wrong. Let’s dive into some more positive takeaways and things Broncos fans can look forward to going into next season.
Erik Chinander is going to keep the pass rush elite
I didn’t think it was an A+ performance for Chinander and the defensive gameplan. Boise State spent almost the entire first half in dime packages (with one LB and six DBs) and Boise State gashed Boise State on the ground for 7.6 yards per carry, but I thought Chinander’s pass schemes were excellent. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar had been sacked 14 times all season and the Broncos got to Allar 4 times on Tuesday night. Penn State’s offensive line had issues picking up Boise’s stunts and blitzers and Allar, who is typically elite in his blitz recognition, consistently struggled to find where the free rusher was coming from. 2 of Boise’s 4 sacks came from linebackers or safeties and the sacks the defensive line did pick up where off of stunts.
Boise State loses most of their production on the defensive line this year, 4 of their top 6 snap getters will be gone this year, (Ahmed Hassanein, Sheldon Newton, Herbert Gums and Michael Callahan) and graduating safety Seyi Oladpio was third in sacks with 6.5, but I think the pass rush should be in good hands next year. So much of Boise State’s production came from their scheme and as long as Chinander is in Boise next season, that elite scheme isn’t going anywhere.
Prince Strachan flashed his potential
Boise State’s highest graded offensive player (min. 10 snaps) was sophomore Prince Strachan. Strachan had big expectations after a strong finish to 2024, but had just 21 catches and 264 yards coming into the Fiesta Bowl. Strachan split time at X with Austin Bolt and has had been Boise’s 4th most productive receiver this season. Given the expectations of a year two leap it had been a disappointing season, but Strachan reminded everyone why expectations were so high in the Fiesta Bowl.
Strachan finished with 4 catches for 40 yards on Tuesday. All 4 catches were first downs included an exceptional contested catch over the middle where he uses his 6-5 frame to hold off a defender from making a play on the ball. Strachan also had the 20-yard touchdown catch that was called back due to penalty. On that play, Strachan got open, made a great catch, broke a tackle and the carried a defender into the endzone. It was the type of play that gets you excited about what Prince Strachan can become as a player. There aren’t many 6-5 receivers who move as well as he does and if Strachan shows in 2025 what he showed in the Fiesta Bowl, I think he’s well on his way to being an NFL wide receiver.
Boise State’s offense might be just as good next year (pending the portal)
This season was a season of dreams for Boise State fans. Spencer Danielson and this staff put together the best offense since Kellen Moore was in town and had a Heisman runner-up for the first time in program history. The good news for Bronco Nation? I think next year’s group could be just as good. Boise State is projected to return 9 of 11 starters on offense and has already secured commitments from three transfers on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line will return everyone except left guard Ben Dooley and the skill groups are only projected to lose Ashton Jeanty. It’s impossible to replace Ashton Jeanty, but the Broncos will look to get similar production in the aggerate, returning Sire Gaines, Breey Dubar and Dylan Riley in addition to transfers Malik Sherrod (Fresno State) and Keyjuan Brown (Louisville).
The biggest question marks for Boise State’s offense at this point will be how good is the new playcaller and who hits the portal? On the playcaller front, the expectation is Boise State will make an in-house hire to replace Bronco legend Dirk Koetter. We’ll find out next season how good they are. As for the portal, time-will tell. If no one hits the portal, Boise State should have a top-20 offense again next season and should be the G5 favorites for a CFP bid once again, but that’s no guarantee. There will be suitors for LT Kage Casey, TE Matt Lauter and HB Sire Gaines. Other players could hit the portal looking for more playing time or a bigger program to be a part of. Bronco Nation News will be closely monitoring the portal situation and who is joining or leaving the program this Winter.