Boise State suffered its fourth loss in the last six games against Colorado State on Wednesday night. Leon Rice called it “rock bottom” as the Broncos fell to 5-4 in conference play, and likely need to finish 11-0 for an at-large bid. The Broncos fell down by as many as 17 points before battling back to a 72-70 lead with 1:06 to go. The Broncos then gave up five unanswered and lost 75-72. Let’s take a look at three key factors that led to this loss for Boise State.
Colorado State hit threes, Boise State did not
Sometimes the simplest answers are the right ones. Boise State shot 6/18 from three (33%) and Colorado State shot 11/24 from three (46%). When you’re down 15 points from beyond the arc, it’s going to be tough to beat many. Throughout the game there were times when Boise State had open looks and couldn’t knock them down. Boise State’s lack of shooting has been an issue all season, and it bit the Broncos once again. Conversely, It’s not as if the Broncos gave up tons of open looks, credit to Colorado State for hitting some contested threes (especially in the first half), but Boise State didn’t answer. Poetically, with the game tied 72-72 and less than a minute left, both teams got a wide-open look from three. Tyson Degenhart missed his corner three, Jalen Lake hit his. Ball game.
Boise State didn’t have answers for Nique Clifford
This three year tournament run has been defined by phenomenal defense supported by a good offense. The Broncos’ defense has been top-30 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric the past three seasons; currently they’re 94th. The Broncos issues are personnel and schematic. The Broncos didn’t have an answer for Colorado State star, Nique Clifford Wednesday night. Whether it was Andrew Meadow, Tyson Degenhart or O’Mar Stanley, Clifford was able to get to the basket at will, either finishing for himself or dishing to open shooters. Clifford finished with 20 points and 7 assists.
Boise State didn’t have the bodies to man up Clifford, but the schematics didn’t help either. On multiple occasions in the second half, Clifford called for a ball-screen with Alvaro Cardenas’ man. The Broncos decided to switch that action, so Cardenas was manned against Clifford. Every time Colorado State got the matchup, it led to a Clifford bucket or free throws. It’s the type of thing Leon should’ve seen one time and adjusted. Colorado State head coach, Niko Medved, saw it one time and decided to attack it throughout the second half. I’ve heaped more praise on Leon Rice than most, but I did not think Boise State’s coaching staff had a good night with some of their defensive adjustments Wednesday night.
Boise State’s defense makes too many mental errors
Nique Clifford is a first-team All-Mountain West player and likely going to be an NBA Draft selection. What concerned me most about Wednesday’s loss was Boise State’s defensive breakdowns when it wasn’t Clifford creating for the Rams. To open the game, Boise State gives up three easy layups. The first one is off a dribble handoff where Stanley hedges off his man onto Clifford, and Stanley’s man (Nikola Djapa) rolls hard to the hoop. Cardenas rotates onto Djapa initially, but leaves him before Stanley is able to rotate back to cover the rim. Primary blame goes to Cardenas for abandoning his help before Stanley had rotated back, but Andrew Meadow is also lethargic getting back to Clifford, and forced Stanley to hedge longer than he should’ve. Easy two points.
The second layup comes in transition off a Boise State miss. Stanley is slow to get back on defense and calls for someone to pick up his man (Djapa again) in transition. No one picks him up, wide open layup. This bucket is on everyone. Stanley is too slow getting back on defense, there’s no reason to be jogging back on the second possession of the game. It happens though, and he calls for someone to cover rim. Nobody does. Instead, Cardneas abandons the paint to cover his man, Degenhart tags late but is more concerned with his man in the corner than protecting the rim (possibly by design), and Lockett and Meadow miscommunicate and both cover the ball handler coming up the floor. It’s the type of bucket that drives coaches crazy because it’s a lack of effort and communication. When Leon said in the postgame there will be tough decisions in the rotation, I suspect this play will come to mind.
Lastly, we’ll jump ahead to the 8-minute mark of the second half. Boise State is down 61-49, but has slowly chipped away at Colorado State’s lead over the past few minutes. Clifford has the ball on the left wing defended by Degenhart. Bowie is guarding Kyan Evans and RJ Keene is guarding Jaylen Crocker-Johnson. Crocker-Johnson sets a simple back screen on Bowie, and Evans cuts to the basket. It leads to a wide-open shot that forces Cardenas to foul and send Evans to the free throw line. There’s a breakdown in communication with Keene and Bowie, which leads to Bowie getting caught up on the screen. To make matters worse, there’s no reaction from Keene when Evans comes off the screen, so Evans gets a free run straight to the hoop. In that situation, Keene needs to switch onto Evans or at least tag the passing lane to create a tougher pass for Clifford. None of it happens and Colorado State extends the lead to 14.
Within the game, these sorts of buckets feel insignificant, but when you give up multiple easy looks per game it reduces your margin for error. Yes, Colorado State hit some tough threes, but if Boise cleans up the mental errors, they get a win on Wednesday. This is the area that most needs to improve for this team to get hot. Boise State isn’t going to suddenly find elite shooters. Leon doesn’t have a 6-9 defensive menace who he chose not to put on Nique Clifford. Alvaro Cardenas isn’t going to add 20 pounds and 3 inches overnight and become a defensive menace. What Boise State can do, is play cleaner schematic defense. They’ll need to if they have any hope of being a top-5 seed and getting a first round bye in the Mountain West tournament.
What’s next?
As catastrophic as this 2-4 stretch feels, the Broncos aren’t dead yet. I said in this article on Tuesday that they needed to finish the year 11-1. Boise State used their 1. While NCAA tournament at-large hopes aren’t technically dead, Boise State is more practically playing for a top-5 seed in Las Vegas. The top-5 teams in the Mountain West get a first round bye, and if the Broncos are going to win the Mountain West Tournament, I suggest avoiding 4 games in 4 days.
The good news? Boise State has a bye this weekend and will be back in action next Wednesday at home against Nevada. The Broncos are 8-1 at home and Nevada’s had an even worse start to Mountain West play than the Broncos, going 3-5 and most recently losing by 21 to Utah State. After Nevada, the Broncos get Fresno State, UNLV and San Jose State. Boise State will be favored in each of those next four games and has a chance to find their rhythm and work through some of these issues before the tougher part of Mountain West play ramps up again. There’s a long road to Las Vegas, and Leon has a lot to figure out before we get there.
Nathan Carroll is a part-time writer and analyst for Bronco Nation News and host of the TBA Basketball Podcast. Nathan works for Pro Football Focus as part of their data collection team, specializing in charting player data at the FBS level. Previously, he graduated from Boise State’s Honors College with a degree in Quantitive Economics and worked 5 years in Boise State’s athletic department. Follow him on X at Nathan_26_
