The Boise State football team is three wins away from a National Championship. Crazy, but true.
What was once a pipe dream is now a possibility for Bronco Nation, but it will start with a victory against Penn State. The Broncos are 3-0 all-time in the Fiesta Bowl, but Penn State is the lone team with a better Fiesta Bowl record, going 7-0 all-time including a win in 1986 that led to the Nittany Lions being crowned national champions. New Year’s Eve will be the first game between the two storied programs
Info:
#3 seed Boise State (12-1) vs #6 seed Penn State (12-2)
Kickoff: 5:30 PM MT on ESPN
Location: Glendale, Arizona
Odds: Penn State -11 O/U 52.5
What to expect from Penn State
I wrote a full breakdown previewing Penn State last week, but here is the concise version. The Nittany Lions are a well-coached team with a great offense and great defense. They don’t shoot themselves in the foot and take advantage of opponent mistakes. The offense leans on their star tight end, Tyler Warren and the defense is led by the best pass rusher in the nation, Abdul Carter. I’d encourage you to read the full breakdown for better insight into what Penn State likes to do and how they got here.
Boise State gets some needed rest
The Broncos got 24 days between the Fiesta Bowl and the Mountain West Championship, giving the team some much needed time to get healthy. Injuries have been a major storyline of this season’s team, and the break will mean some key players for Boise State getting back to full health. The big one is obviously Ashton Jeanty. Boise State has had a game every weekend since October 25 and the game-to-game grind was taking its toll on Jeanty. After Boise State’s selection to the Fiesta Bowl, and a first round bye in the College Football Playoff, Jeanty’s reaction to the 24 day layoff was “That’s the best news I’ve heard all week.”
Boise State will be getting a fresh Ashton Jeanty and the healthiest offense they’ve had since the season opener against Georgia Southern. All 11 starters are expected to play and the only players expected to be limited are running back, Sire Gaines and wide receiver, Chris Marshall. On the other side of the ball, Spencer Danielson announced this week that starting safety Alexander Teubner will be back on the field against Penn State. It’s not known what his workload will look like, but he is a major part of Boise State’s run defense and any reps he’s available for will be pivotal for this staff’s gameplan.
Ashton Jeanty’s toughest test yet
Penn State’s run defense is sixth in EPA/rush, by far the toughest the Broncos have seen so far this season. The Nittany Lions have one of the best linebacker duos in the nation in Kobe King and Tony Rojas. King in particular is one of the best run defenders I’ve seen this season and will likely be an early day 3 pick in the NFL Draft this spring. Additionally, their safety duo, Jaylen Reed and Zakee Wheatley, has been excellent in stepping into the box and playing the run this season. Penn State head coach, James Franklin, made it clear that Ashton Jeanty will be their point of emphasis defensively as the game plan for the Broncos. Eight-man boxes will be nothing new for Ashton Jeanty, but Penn State’s defense poses challenges that the Broncos haven’t seen yet this season.
There is reason for optimism though. Penn State’s run defense is very good, but not perfect. Despite being 6th in EPA/rush, Penn State is 37th in rushing success rate. Their defense has been one of the best in the nation at limiting rushing explosives, which is a credit to Reed and Wheatley, but they haven’t been elite at getting down-to-down stops. Particularly, Rojas has been one of the best cover linebackers in the country but has a 22.5% missed tackle rate and a run defense of 40.7. Both of those numbers are very bad. I think Koetter will opt to run at Rojas early and often. This game will be exceptionally hard for Jeanty to hit one of his plentiful explosive runs, but I think there is opportunity for Boise State to lean on the run game and stay ahead of the chains throughout the game.
Can Boise State’s defensive line win?
I’ve heard throughout the lead up to this game that Penn State is a ground and pound Big Ten team that will rely on their offensive line (or something to that effect), but I don’t think that’s a fair evaluation of this Penn State team. Penn State’s offense doesn’t lean on a stellar offensive line, instead utilizing creative playcalling, veteran quarterback play and Tyler Warren to move the ball. I view Penn State’s offensive line as one of the areas that Boise State will be able to attack in this game. No one on the Nittany Lions’ offensive line is projected to be drafted this spring and I think their left tackle is a liability for the unit. They’ve also had issues at right tackle, but Nolan Rucci has started the last three weeks and been significantly better than what they previously had at right tackle.
I’m interested to see how Boise State’s defensive line can hold up. Typically, when you see elite programs against G5 or low level P4 programs, the biggest gap is in the trenches. When Notre Dame blew out Indiana in the CFP first round, it was in large part because of how Notre Dame’s offensive line and defensive lines controlled the line of scrimmage. I don’t think that will be the case in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise State’s defensive line has been a strength all season, and I think they will have a chance to win their matchup against Penn State’s offensive line.
Boise State’s cornerbacks need to win their matchups
If you want to pinpoint the biggest weakness for Penn State, I think it is their wide receiver room. One of the reasons I liked this potential matchup for the Broncos is because of their lack of elite playmakers on the outside. Penn State has plenty of talented playmakers, Tyler Warren, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are all NFL guys, but none of them play wide receiver. Those three players have combined for 148 catches this season. Every Penn State wide receiver has combined for 97 catches this year.
Boise State’s biggest weakness this season has been the secondary being able to cover elite receivers and I don’t think Penn State has the guys to take advantage of that. Boise State’s secondary is coming off their best game of the year against UNLV and has an opportunity to build on that success in the Fiesta Bowl. I expect Erik Chinander’s game plan will emphasize trying to slow down Penn State’s run game and limiting Tyler Warren in the passing game. If the Broncos want to move on to the semifinals, the defense needs to force Penn State’s wide receivers to beat them, and if Boise State can do that (easier said than done), I like A’Marion McCoy and Jeremiah Earby’s chances of winning their matchups.
Keys to a Bronco Victory
Limit explosives: Penn State’s biggest issue on offense this season has been an inability to hit explosive plays. The lack of talent on the offensive line has made it hard for their star running backs to find space and their lack of wide receiver talent has made it hit open players down the field. Boise State needs to keep this thing in rock fight mode to maximize their chance at a win.
Start fast: Ask any Penn State fan and they’ll express their frustration with this team’s issues coming out of the gates. Against SMU, the Mustangs marched down the field on their opening drive and put themselves into position to go up 7-0 before shooting themselves in the foot. Meanwhile, Penn State’s offense didn’t get into the end zone for the first 20 minutes of the game. Against Oregon, Penn State went down 28-10 in the first 20 minutes and ended up losing. Against Maryland, they were down 7-3 at the end of the first quarter before winning 44-7. Against Minnesota, they went down 10-0 before pulling back and winning late. Week after week Penn State takes 15-20 minutes to get going. Broncos need to take advantage and grab a lead big enough that they can hold onto when Penn State adjusts.
Sack Drew Allar: One of Penn State’s biggest assets this season has been the play of Drew Allar. Allar is excellent at getting the ball out quickly and decisively, but I think he’s most impressive against pressure. Allar is exceptional at avoiding sacks, extended plays with his legs and finding positive plays. When pressured, Allar only gets sacked 12% of the time (15th in FBS) and has a 72.3 passing grade (5th in FBS). Most impressive, he’s the only quarterback in FBS to have 400 dropbacks and 0 turnover worthy plays when pressured. Allar doesn’t make mistakes when pressure comes, so it’s critical the Broncos do more than just generate pressure. They need to bring the quarterback down this week against a suspect Penn State offensive line.
Don’t beat themselves: Penn State didn’t play a great game against SMU. They had a net success rate of +2% and an EPA/Play of -0.14. It’s the type of advanced box score you would expect to be a low scoring coin flip game. The reason it wasn’t? SMU threw two pick sixes and had 4 red zone possessions that resulted in 3 points. SMU made mistakes and Penn State capitalized. Boise State can’t afford to make the unforced errors that killed SMU’s season.
Analytic Projections
With college football data getting better, CFB analytics are getting more and more accurate. Here are what three of the top analytical power ratings are projecting for this game (as well as my own personal power ratings):
Sagarin: Penn State by 10.5 (31-21)
SP+: Penn State by 11.5 (33-22)
ESPN FPI: Penn State by 9.5
CFB Insiders: Penn State by 10 (31-21)
NC PR: Penn State by 9 (31-22)
Final Prediction:
#3 Boise State 27, #6 Penn State 25
This season’s been predictable for Boise State so far. They’ve been favored in 12 games and they’ve won 12 games. They’ve been an underdog once and they lost that game. I’ve picked the Broncos all 12 times they were favored and picked against them against Oregon, meaning Vegas and myself are 13-0 on picking the winner in Boise State games.
This one is where we’ll disagree.
Call it foolish optimism or researched analysis, but I like this matchup for the Broncos. I think this is a close football game and I don’t see either side winning in a blowout. Penn State could certainly win and potentially by two scores, but I would take the Broncos +11 points in this spot. I think Boise State can compete (and win) in the trenches, and I don’t think Penn State has the wide receivers to take the top off Boise’s defense. Getting a healthy offensive line and a rested Ashton Jeanty transforms this run game, and I think the run game is efficient enough to control the clock and keep this game low scoring.
I think the Broncos start fast, jetting out to an early 10-0 lead before Penn State adjusts and finds their rhythm. The game is close the entire second half before an Ashton Jeanty touchdown late in the fourth quarter gives the Broncos a 27-19 lead. Penn State finds a touchdown in the final minutes to tie it, but the Broncos get a stop on the two point conversion attempt to tie it. Moments later, Jeanty gets a first down to seal a win for the Broncos and punch their ticket to the Orange Bowl.
Ashton Jeanty finishes with 170 yards and 2 touchdowns and earns offensive MVP honor. Maddux Madsen does just enough for the Broncos to get a win, finishing 15/27 for 155 yards and a touchdown, plus the interception. Kage Casey has the type of day that shoots him up draft boards against Abdul Carter and Cam Camper leads the way in the receiving room with 5 catches and 70 yards. Boise State’ pass rush finishes with 3 sacks and Marco Notarainni is defensive MVP with 10 tackles including the most important of the game on the 2-point attempt.
Bronco Nation News will be in Arizona covering the game. Be sure to follow @BNNBroncoNation on twitter for updates and show times. Look forward to seeing everyone down there!
No context CFP predictions
#1 Oregon 37, #8 Ohio State 31
#2 Georgia 20, #7 Notre Dame 7
#5 Texas 45, #4 Arizona State 23