Boise State vs. UNLV game preview: Biggest game in Mountain West Conference history

I tend to be the levelheaded one in the room when people say “Biggest ______ ever!”

When people said the regular season matchup between these two was the biggest game between G5 teams ever, I was quick to remind people of the 2010 Fiesta Bowl. When people say this is the biggest game in conference history? There’s no exaggeration. This is the biggest game in the history of the Mountain West Conference.

It’s a playoff game. Winner goes to the CFP and loser goes to the LA Bowl. The stakes don’t get bigger than this in a Conference Championship game. The Broncos are riding an 8-game win streak dating back to 1977. If the Broncos make it 9-straight they will make their first CFP appearance and likely their 4^th trip to the Fiesta Bowl.

Info:

#10 Boise State (11-1) vs #20 UNLV (10-2)

Kickoff: 6:00 PM MT on FOX

Location: The Blue

Odds: Boise State -4 O/U 57.5

What can we learn about October’s game?

This game is of course a rematch from the week nine bout in Las Vegas. Boise State walked away victorious 29-24 in that game. The Broncos were led by their strongest defensive performance of the season. The Broncos had 6 sacks and were stout in the red zone, Boise also grabbed an interception that led to a touchdown. Ashton Jeanty, who injured his elbow early in the game on an awkward fall, had his word game of the season and was held to just 3.9 yards per carry. The Broncos capped off the game with a dominating 14-play, 8 minute drive to seal the win.

By the numbers, Boise State had a net success rate of 3%. Meaning it was a fairly even game on a down-to-down basis with a slight edge to the Broncos. UNLV led in terms of explosives (6 for the Rebs and 4 for Boise), yards/play (6.7 to 5.3) and EPA/Play (0.21 to 0.08). So what does that all mean? The Broncos won by methodically moving the ball down the field without explosives, whereas UNLV largely relied on big plays (often on third downs) to get the ball down the field.

Broncos are getting healthy

Reason for optimism for Broncos fans? Boise State will be much healthier this time around than last October. The Ashton Jeanty injury was notable but Boise State was also without Mason Randolph and Roger Carreon. Boise State’s backup offensive linemen struggled in the first matchup, so getting Carreon and Randolph back should be a massive boost for an O-Line that struggled to open up running lanes in Vegas. Also of note, star wide receivers Cam Camper and Latrell Caples were limited in the first matchup. Camper played just 17 snaps coming off a knee injury against Hawai’I and Caples played 56 snaps but was clearly hampered by a shoulder issue he was dealing with early in the year. The Broncos’ offense is as healthy as its been all year and there’s reason to be optimistic that they perform better this time around.

Defensively, Boise State will likely be without Alexander Teubner who had one of his best games as a Bronco. Teubner had 10 tackles last time around and this secondary will be tasked with filling that void if Teubner does miss the game. Specifically, Ty Benefield will need to step up. Benefield had his lowest graded game of the season (per PFF) and will need to be much better with Teubner gone.

Boise State needs more from its playcallers

Rewatch the first matchup and one thing that immediately stands out: UNLV couldn’t diagnose Boise State’s blitz packages. Erik Chinander had an absolute masterclass that constantly kept Hajj-Malik Williams on his backfoot which led to arguably his worst game of the season. Early in the season, I praised Chinander for identifying this team’s weaknesses and creating an identity with complicated blitz and stunt schemes that confused O-Lines. The past few weeks, the Broncos have gotten away from their blitz packages in favor of rushing four and relying on Fely, Hassanein and Jayden Virgin-Morgan to get pressure. The result? Boise State, who started the season with 38 sacks in 8 games, has only 7 sacks the past 4 games. Meanwhile, I’ve been talking for weeks about the offenses lack of creativity in recent weeks. Time and time again, the offense relies on players winning one-on-ones instead of misdirection that keeps defenses on their back foot. We haven’t seen much trickery or read option. Screen passes have been few and far between and Boise State fans are still begging for more run plays that get Jeanty on the edge.

At the end of the day, the offense is a top-10 unit and the defense is the best in the Mountain West (shocking, I know) per SP+. On Friday, Boise State’s going to need a little bit more… and I think it’s coming. Boise State went from being an elite pass rush unit with NFL level blitz schemes to being extremely vanilla the past few weeks. It’s possible that all the good plays are gone and this staff is trusting their players; however, I think that Chinander has been saving some of their playcalls for a bigger game. I think the same is likely true for Dirk Koetter and some of the offensive play design. My opinion is the staff got together the past four weeks and agreed they could afford to limit the playbook in hopes of surprising someone in the Mountain West championship. It may sound insane but smart coaching staffs do this all the time. Watch any Top-25 SEC team and then watch what they ran when they played Mississippi State. You are what you put on film and if you can keep some of your gold locked away until the right moment it can lead to fireworks. (See also: 2006 Fiesta Bowl)

Regardless of whether its intentional or not, the playcalling on both sides of the ball has been a bit discouraging in recent weeks. The coaching staff needs to scheme up some freebies this week if the Broncos are going to take down UNLV again.

Matchups to watch

Field Position: UNLV is #1 in field position on both offense and defense. They’re extremely well coached with a great return unit, elite coverage teams and force a ton of turnovers. (UNLV has forced 22 turnovers which is #2 in the Mountain West and 20^th in the Nation.) First time around, the Broncos had net average field position of +11 yards. Can the Broncos dominate the field position battle again?

Turnovers: I already noted that UNLV is elite at forcing turnovers; meanwhile, the Broncos have forced just 16 turnovers. The Broncos finished +1 in the first matchup. As with most close games, I expect the turnover margin to be a major indicator in who wins.

Boise State in the Redzone: Boise State has one of the best redzone offenses in the Nation. The Broncos are 7^th in Points per Quality Possession and the Rebels are 92^nd defensively in the same metric. The Broncos have had issues settling for field goals recently (which coincides with some of my concerns with offensive playcalling) but need to take advantage against the Rebels.

How does Boise affect the Rebels?

UNLV is 6-0 on the road this season but hasn’t played in an environment like Albertsons Stadium. There will be three factors the Rebels haven’t seen before: The Blue, the noise and the weather.

The Blue is the obvious one. The Rebels haven’t visited Boise since 2016. Hajj-Malik Williams is 25 but even he wasn’t in college last time we saw the Rebels on the Blue. Head Coach Barry Odom hasn’t been on the Blue either. Is it the biggest thing in the world? Probably not. But it is something.

The noise will be something. UNLV hasn’t played in an atmosphere as loud as Albertsons Stadium. Friday’s game is trending towards a sellout, which would be the most fans at a UNLV road game since they traveled to Fresno State on October 28, 2023. UNLV lost that game 24-31. Fresno has a good crowd but Albertsons Stadium is #1 in false starts forced per game over the past decade. Let’s see how UNLV and their go-go offense reacts to Bronco Nation.

Lastly, and arguably most important, is the weather. Current forecasts are 34º at kickoff and cooling. The Rebels don’t have cold weather experience this season. UNLV plays in a dome (and in Las Vegas) and spent November in San Jose and Hawai’i. The San Jose State game was in a borderline tropical storm but the cold is a different beast. The Rebels went to Colorado Springs last season but that game was in the 50’s most of the game. From my research, UNLV hasn’t played a game in the 30’s since 2021. I expect the Broncos to lean into the weather and play smashmouth football. Can the Rebels offense still go-go in the cold?

Keys to a Bronco Victory

Get Ashton Jeanty in space: First time out, Ashton Jeanty didn’t get any favors from the Boise State offensive line. Play after play, Jeanty was getting hit in the backfield and forced to make magic happen for himself. Randolph and Carreon are big additions to a run game that desperately needs holes to open up.

Be sound on Special Teams: UNLV has one of the best coached special teams units in the Nation. Special teams has been a notable issue for the Broncos. Boise State did a great job avoiding negatives first time around and will need to continue that excellence. Watchout for Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Year Ricky White who leads the nation with 4 blocked kicks this season.

Hit Explosive Pass Plays: This UNLV defense is sound but they aren’t without weakness. The Rebels are just 40^th percentile in giving up passing explosives. Last year in the Mountain West Championship the Broncos hit 5 explosives on just 15 pass attempts. We haven’t seen it often this year, the Broncos need to hit big in the pass game this week.

Analytic Projections:

With college football data getting better, CFB analytics are getting more and more accurate. Here are what three of the top analytical power ratings are projecting for this game (as well as my own personal power ratings):

Sagarin: Boise State by 6 (34-28)

SP+: Boise State by 5 (33-28)

ESPN FPI: Boise State by 7

CFB Insiders: Boise State by 5 (34-29)

NC PR: Boise State by 8 (31-23)

Final Prediction:

#10 Boise State 26, #20 UNLV 21

I’m 12-0 on my predictions this season, so I’m not picking against the Broncos now. This is a tough game for the Broncos. UNLV is going to be motivated after the loss at home but both teams understand what’s at stake. Winner gets a playoff berth. For the Rebels, I think they missed their chance at getting Boise. Boise State is healthier now and (despite recent performances) has a chance to ramp up to playing their best ball since the start of the year.

I think the weather has a major effect on this game. I think both offenses start slow and the special teams suffer in the cold. UNLV gets a couple of explosives in the pass game and take an early lead, but the Broncos ultimately grind down this Rebel front 7 to the tune of 200 yards on the ground and find a way to win. I expect a big day from Cam Camper and an angry Ashton Jeanty.

See you there Bronco Nation. Be sure to watch Bronco Nation News’ Pregame show beginning 3:00 MT.

No context Championship Predictions:

CUSA: Jacksonville State 35, Western Kentucky 22

AAC: Tulane 24, Army 3

MAC: Ohio 20, Miami(OH) 16

Big 12: Iowa State 18, Arizona State 15

SEC: Texas 33, Georgia 27

SBC: Marshall 28, Louisiana 10

ACC: Clemson 20, SMU 17

B1G: Oregon 24, Penn State 20

Last week:

Boise State 34, Oregon State 17 (Boise State won 34-18)