Boise State has looked off for three weeks in a row, most recently winning a 17-13 nail-biter against Wyoming. Can the Broncos get right against an Oregon State squad looking to clinch bowl eligibility? The Beavers lead the all-time series 6-4 (tied 4-4 since the Broncos went to D1-A), most recently beating the Broncos 34-17 to open the 2022 season.
Game info:
#11 Boise State (10-1) vs Oregon State (5-6)
Kickoff: 10:00 AM MT on FOX
Location: Albertson Stadium – Boise, ID
Odds: Boise State -20.5 O/U 56.5
What to expect from the Beavers?
Oregon State is coming off a 41-38 win over PAC-12 rival Washington State. Oregon State had looked like a team who had quit in previous weeks after losses to Air Force (0-28), San Jose State (13-24) and Cal (7-44). Despite the recent poor form, the Beavers came out and moved the ball efficiently on the Cougars. The Beavers finished with 484 yards and were 11/20 on 3rd and 4th downs.
At quarterback, the Beavers started the season with Idaho transfer Gervani McCoy, but moved to Senior Ben Gulbranson midseason with mixed results. Gulbranson was good against the Cougs last week, but struggled in the loss to San Jose State. The Beavers facilitate most of their passing game through Junior Trent Walker, who has 77 catches and 849 yards on the season. The Beavers have struggled to be an explosive passing offense most of the year, sitting in the 8th percentile in passing explosiveness. However, the Beavers have a strong offensive line that they lean on in the run game. The Beavers average 1.98 line yards per carry, which is 86th percentile. The Beavers lean on the run game to set up 3rd and short consistently with just 5.8 yards to go per third down (4th best in CFB). Capitalizing on the 3rd and shorts, the Beavers are 47.2% on 3rd and 4th downs this season, 18th in the nation. Expect Oregon State to lean on the run game and go for long methodical drives, instead of big explosives.
The other side of the ball should be a clear mismatch in the Broncos favor. There isn’t a clear strength to this Oregon State defense, which has been decimated by injuries this season. The run defense is 123rd in success rate and 102nd in EPA. The pass defense is 126th in EPA. Given the injuries, the Beavers have moved towards a “bend but don’t break” style of defense that is giving up quality possessions on 51.8% of drives (129th in FBS). Despite the adjusted style, the Beavers still give up explosives on 9% of plays, 20th percentile. The Beavers get some relief with star Defensive Tackle Thomas Collins getting healthy the past two weeks, but I expect the Broncos to lean on the run game and play action to methodically move the ball down the field in this one.
Given Oregon State’s lack of explosiveness on offense, and their tendency to give up long drives on defense, I expect this game to be lower in possessions with both teams going on long drives that chew up clock. That does tend to favor a team looking to pull off an upset.
Maddux Madsen has a big bounce back opportunity
It’s no secret that Maddux Madsen had one of his worst games as a Bronco on Saturday. Madsen finished 14/26 with 167 yards and 2 uncharacteristically bad sacks. Madsen finished with -.25 EPA/Dropback, which as you can imagine is not good. There were some drops on Saturday (I counted 3) but there were also at least 5 passes that were misses by Madsen. I’m not a Quarterback guru, but I thought Madsen’s footwork was sloppy and it looked like he was trying to throw through the wind which led to inaccuracies. Laramie’s wind (which averaged 18mph during the Broncos game) has a long history of eating up quarterbacks and making them look bad and the hope for Bronco Nation is that Saturday was just an aberration.
Madsen has a chance to prove that Saturday was a fluke against an Oregon State defense that has struggled in pass defense. The Beavers give up 8.3 yards per dropback, which is bottom-10 in FBS. As I mentioned earlier, the Beavers give up .10 EPA/Dropback, 126th in FBS. The Beavers pass rush has been non-existent this year, they’re worst in FBS with just 7 sacks, and on the back end the Beavers are 112th in FBS with just 5 interceptions. This is a brutal pass defense at all three levels and there are zero excuses for Madsen to have another bad game. Look for Madsen to get right this week.
Broncos will host the Mountain West Championship
With the win over Wyoming, Boise State clinched a spot in the Mountain West Championship game for the third consecutive season. The Broncos are looking to win back-to-back Mountain West championships for the first time since joining the conference (an unbelievable fact that I had to double check). Later Saturday evening, Colorado State fell to Fresno State 22-28. The Rams’ loss clinched home field advantage for the Broncos in the Mountain West Championship game. The Broncos will play on the Blue on Friday, December 6 at 6:00 PM MT. The Broncos opponent is still to be determined. Either Colorado State or UNLV will be the opponent. Colorado State hosts Utah State and UNLV hosts Nevada. Since Colorado State and UNLV did not play in the regular season, a tie will be broken by CFP rankings (or computer metrics if neither team is ranked). That means:
UNLV win and CSU loss: Boise State hosts UNLV
CSU win and UNLV loss: Boise State hosts Colorado State
Both UNLV and CSU win: Boise State hosts UNLV, since UNLV is ranked in the CFP and CSU is not.
Both UNLV and CSU lose: Technically TBD; however, Boise State likely hosts UNLV. UNLV currently has a massive edge on the Rams in the computer metrics used and CSU is unlikely to pass UNLV with a Utah State loss.
My model gives a 94% chance the Broncos play UNLV and only a 6% chance that the Rams come to Boise on December 6. Nothing’s official, but expect a rematch with the Rebels. Of note: UNLV plays on Saturday, so if the Broncos do get the Rebels, they’ll be getting them on a rest advantage.
Senior Day for the Broncos
24 Broncos will be honored on Friday for Senior Day. The list includes 11 offensive or defensive starters. After the Regular season I will do some early offseason preview work, but for the time being go support these Seniors for the time they’ve given back to Bronco Nation.
Keys to a Bronco Victory
Finish drives: The Broncos have been effective in the red zone for most of the year, but settled for field goals twice against and failed to convert on 4th down inside of Wyoming’s territory twice on Saturday. The Broncos probably won’t get 10+ possessions so getting touchdowns instead of field goals will be critical to a win.
Stop the run: If Oregon State is to pull off an upset, it will likely be because they control the clock and give themselves 3rd and short opportunities. If the Broncos can stuff the run, I don’t think Oregon State’s passing attack will be enough to keep up with the Broncos’ offense.
Open up the playbook: I acknowledge that Koetter may be saving some of his better stuff for the more important games, but the Broncos need more creativity. Whether it’s more misdirection in the run schemes or stretching the defense vertically in the pass game, Boise State’s coaching staff needs to help out their players with a better designed offense this week.
Broncos to watch:
With Ashton Jeanty out for most of the 2nd half against Wyoming, the run game turned to Breezy Dubar. More importantly, when Jeanty came back the offense continued to rotate Dubar in there and Jeanty was noticeably more explosive when he was able to get rest within drives. I think the offense will prioritize keeping Jeanty rested this week. Look for Breezy Dubar and Tyler Crowe to have a bigger role in the offense. Spencer Danielson also alluded to Sire Gaines being close to healthy, which would be a huge addition for the Broncos’ offense.
Last week, Michael Callahan had his best game of the season against an explosive Wyoming running game. Callahan finished with 3 tackles including 2 run stuffs. Sheldon Newton played only 7 snaps last week and clearly wasn’t healthy. Look for Callahan to have a big role again this week against a good Oregon State offensive line.
Analytic Projections:
With college football data getting better, CFB analytics are getting more and more accurate. Here are what three of the top analytical power ratings are projecting for this game (as well as my own personal power ratings):
Sagarin: Boise State by 19 (43-24)
SP+: Boise State by 23 (43-19)
ESPN FPI: Boise State by 21
CFB Insiders: Boise State by 17 (40-23)
NC PR: Boise State by 17 (34-17)
Final Prediction:
#11 Boise State 34, Oregon State 17
For the first time this year, I’m going exactly with what my projection has. I think this is a low possession game with methodical drives by both teams. The Beavers inability to get to the quarterback or force turnovers keeps the Broncos offense on schedule for most of the game. I think we get 150 yards from Ashton Jeanty and 50 yards from Breezy Dubar and Madsen bounces back with an efficient 2 touchdown performance.
The difference in this one ends up being Boise State’s defense though. Boise State’s ability to get sacks and stop the run keeps the Beavers offense behind the chains often enough to force punts. I think A’Marion McCoy has a bounce back game and the Beavers are held under 200 yards passing. Ben Gulbranson has thrown 4 interceptions in his 2 starts and I think the Broncos get one on Friday.
No context Mountain West Predictions:
Utah State 27, Colorado State 20
Stanford 35, San Jose State 21
UCLA 35, Fresno State 10
Washington State 24, Wyoming 17
UNLV 35, Nevada 30
Air Force 27, San Diego State 17
New Mexico 38, Hawai’I 26
Last week:
Boise State 45, Wyoming 20 (BSU won 17-13)
UNLV 33, San Jose State 30 (UNLV won 27-16)
Utah State 45, San Diego State 28 (Utah State won 41-20)
Colorado State 27, Fresno State 12 (Fresno won 28-22)
Air Force 23, Nevada 16 (Air Force won 22-19)
