Most of Bronco Nation eagerly follows Boise State men’s basketball and has rode the highs and lows that this season has had to offer so for, but Bronco Nation News is not naïve to the fact that Boise State is historically a football school, and a number of Boise State fans join basketball season once football season is over. Even Leon Rice will eagerly tell you he is Boise State football’s biggest super fan. For those of you in that boat, welcome! This article is specifically for you. Here is what you missed from the men’s basketball team so far.
Boise State’s Resume so far
The Broncos are 11-3 and off to a 3-0 start in Mountain West play. Their first marquee conference game of the season is this Saturday against 8-3 San Diego State. The Broncos resume is some way off at-large worthy at this point. The Broncos currently don’t have a Quad 1 win and picked up two Quad 2 wins in non-conference play against Saint Mary’s and Clemson (both on the fringe of being Quad 1). The Broncos 3 losses to start the season were against San Francisco (Quad 1), Washington State (Quad 2) and Boston College (Quad 3). As of January 1, Boise State was in 1 of the 31 submitted brackets in the bracket matrix. The Broncos have a ways to go to build an at-large resume but they aren’t completely out of it. I think the magic number is 16 conference wins. If Boise State can go 16-4 in conference play I think there’s almost no shot Boise State gets left out of the NCAA tournament.
Who are the starters?
Like my 7th grade Facebook relationship status: It’s complicated. Coming into the year I was very confident that the team would be built around Alvaro Cardenas, Tyson Degenhart and O’Mar Stanley, and Leon Rice would need to find two starters to play around those three. Cardenas and Degenhart of been Boise State’s two best players all season, but Leon Rice has spent the first two months of the season trying to find the right fit around those two. Stanley has had a disappointing start to the season, consistently struggling with foul trouble and becoming much less efficient than he was last season. Against Wyoming, Stanley came off the bench for the first time this season and played just 14 minutes. Leon Rice has had five other players in the starting lineup this season: Andrew Meadow, Javan Buchanan, Dylan Anderson, Julian Bowie and RJ Keene. Chris Lockett Jr. hasn’t started this year, but just had a season-high 26 minutes in Tuesday’s win at Wyoming. So who are the starters on Saturday? Tyson Degenhart and Alvaro Cardenas. Outside of those two, your guess is as good as mine.
Who’s good in the Mountain West?
The Mountain West is having a down year. After being a 6-bid league last season, the Mountain West is currently projecting 2-3 tournament bids this season. The favorite is Utah State, who is 13-1 and already has wins in Viejas and Lawlor Arenas. After the Aggies, the battle for the second-best team is wide open. Boise State, New Mexico and San Diego State are the three front runners for that slot. New Mexico is 11-3 and has a neutral court win over UCLA that is looking like a Quad 1A win. The Lobos also lost to New Mexico State at home which will likely sit in the Q3/4 range all season. KenPom has Boise State, New Mexico and San Diego State all projected to go 14-6 in conference play. If that plays out, its likely Utah State and San Diego State that grab at-large bids for the conference.
What is Boise State’s identity?
In recent seasons, the Broncos have been a hard-nosed defensive team that worked the offense through Tyson Degenhart and three-point shooters to generate offense. Part of the slow start this season was the fact that the Broncos had 8 new players on the roster and had to find their new identity. Since losing to Washington State, the Broncos have found their identity: Elite rebounding. In the five games since that last loss, the Broncos rebounding advantage in each game has been: +13, +12, +9, +30, +9. On the season, Boise State has the 42nd best offensive rebounding rate (getting an offensive rebound on 34.8% of possessions) and they’re the 4th best defensive rebounding team (getting a defensive rebound on 76.8% of possessions). The Broncos have had issues shooting from 3, shooting 31% on the season (272nd in NCAA) and are making up for it by creating extra possessions on the offensive glass. Leon Rice teams have always placed an emphasis on rebounding, every team since Leon was hired has been top-60 in defensive rebounding, but the Broncos have never had a team that places an emphasis on offensive rebounding like this team has.
What’s next?
Boise State hosts San Diego State on Saturday at 2:00 PM. The game has massive implications on the conference standings as well as Boise’s at-large chances. The Broncos have won three straight against the Aztecs and six of their last seven matchups. A win on Saturday keeps Boise in first place in Mountain West and provides the Broncos with another Quad 2 win in their at-large resume. The Aztecs are elite defensively, boasting the 10th best defensive effective field goal rate in the Nation, but they’ve gotten beaten on the glass by bigger teams this year. Defensively, the Broncos point of attack defense on shot making guards has been a problem this season. San Diego State runs their offense through Nick Boyd, and for the Aztecs to grab a win it will likely be because Boyd goes off. If Boise State. If the Broncos can dominate the glass and slow down Boyd, I like their chances for a win on Saturday. KenPom projects Boise State as a 2-point favorite.
