Wednesday might go down as one of the better days in Boise State’s 2024-25 season – and the 2025-26 season as well.
The Broncos knocked off Butler 100-93, to advance to the CBC Semifinals and secure $50,000 in NIL revenue. As the game ticked towards halftime, reports began swirling of some off the court news for Boise State as well.
As the final seconds ticked away in the first half, On3’s Pete Nakos reported that UCLA guard Dylan Andrews would be signing with Boise State. Simply, a massive signing for Leon Rice and his staff. Andrews started 60 games for the Bruins over the past two seasons and was a top-50 recruit coming out of high school. Andrews averaged 6.9 points and 3.4 assists last season for the Bruins and 12.9 points and 3.7 assists as a sophomore. Although Andrews remained the starter this past season, he saw his offensive role diminish and, with the addition of Donovan Dent, decided to play out his senior year away from Westwood.
Andrews is a proven player at the power five level, and at this point is a heavy favorite to be the Broncos’ starting point guard in 2025. During his sophomore season, Andrews flashed NBA upside, highlighted by a 31-point outing in a PAC-12 tournament win against Oregon State. In total, Andrews scored 20+ seven times as a sophomore and will be looking to get back to form under Leon Rice’s tutelage. This past season, UCLA used him as a combo guard, letting him run the offense half the time, but also asking him to play off-ball too often for Andrews’ skillset.
One thing is clear from Andrews’ film, he thrives with the ball in his hands. When spotting up, Andrews was adequate, scoring 0.9 points per possession (48th percentile). As the primary ball handler, everything looked smoother for him. UCLA often ran high ball screens with Andrews as the ball handler where he showed an ability to get downhill off screens or find the popping/rolling big man. What will be most valuable to Leon Rice’s offense is Andrews’ ability to score in isolation. Repeatedly, Boise State struggled to find guys who could beat their man one-on-one and force defenses into conflict. When Andrews ran isolation on his defender, the offense scored 1.2 points per possession (98th percentile). His ability to get downhill and create buckets for himself is why he was a top-50 recruit in high school and considered an NBA prospect coming into his junior season.
The offensive skillset is intriguing, but the first thing that popped to me on film was his athleticism. Particularly his first step, and ability to accelerate and decelerate at a high level. When he isolates, he’s able to get almost anywhere he wants because he can blow by most guards. When he’s moving to the basket, he’s able to get off uncontested pullups because he goes from downhill to his shooting motion faster than defenders can adjust. It’s part of why he was such a prized prospect out of high school, his start/stop ability is special. It’s one of the reasons I’m incredibly optimistic on the leap he could take within Boise State’s system next season.
Critics may point to his 38% field goal percentage as evidence of inefficiency, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Andrews is a capable three-point shooter, 33% from deep in his career, and is efficient at the rim for a guard, scoring 55% within five feet of the basket this past year. The efficiency issue has been Andrews’ shot selection, he’s a 38% shooter on non-rim two-point attempts, many of those are pull up mid-range jumpers. That shot is the least efficient shot in basketball, and one that Leon Rice has effectively eliminated from his offenses. Eliminate the midrange jumpers and his effective field goal percentage jumps from 45.5% to 50.4%. This staff will be tasked with refining his shot selection and getting him to maximize his efficiency as a scorer.
Beyond his scoring ability, Andrews is a consistent playmaker. I mentioned the pick and roll offense, but he shows good vision with drive and kick opportunities and understands when to attack, and when to swing the ball to the next man. His 24.4% assist rate would have been 9th in the Mountain West this season. He’s not Alvaro Cardenas, but Dylan Andrews has consistently displayed that he can run a college offense and make plays for others. Generally, Andrews is a high IQ player, but it’s best exemplified in his pick and roll IQ. He is quick to diagnose opponents’ ball screen coverage, and consistently finds the way to attack the defense before they can recover.
On the defensive end, Andrews utilizes his athleticism to consistently stay in front of his man. In the games I’ve watched, teams make a point of not attacking him defensively, and he will step in and be Boise State’s best on-ball defender right away. In ball-screens, he does a good job navigating them and getting back to his assignment quickly. He shows good instincts jumping into passing lanes and running into transition when his man is off-ball, although he has occasionally gotten caught ball watching. For a team who struggled massively with athletic guards this year, I think the Broncos defense got better with Dylan Andrews.
In comparison to Cardenas, it is hard to say who is definitively better. They’re very different players. Cardenas was a true floor general and the best passer of the Leon Rice era. Andrews’ playstyle is similar to Marcus Shaver’s, Andrews won’t be the playmaker that Cardenas is, but he should offer similar shooting, better defender and more self-creation. There’s a case to be made that Andrews is the most proven power five player that Leon Rice has had on his staff. It’s a massive addition for Leon Rice and his staff, and one that should be routinely celebrated by Bronco Nation. At worst, I think he’s a capable, athletic starting point guard in the vein of Roddie Anderson. At his best, there’s a lot of similarities in the games of Andrews and reigning Mountain West Player of the Year, Donovan Dent. If Andrews hits on his upside, he’s a first-team all-conference caliber player with legitimate NBA upside. If he cashes in on that upside, the Broncos will be a force to be reckoned with next year.
Nathan Carroll is a part-time contributor for Bronco Nation News and host of the TBA Basketball Podcast. Nathan works for Pro Football Focus as part of their data collection team, specializing in charting player data at the FBS level. Previously, he graduated from Boise State’s Honors College with a degree in Quantitative Economics and worked 5 years in Boise State’s athletic department. Follow him on X at Nathan_26_
