It’s not the tournament Bronco Nation would have liked to see Boise State playing in at the start of the season, but Boise State has a chance to win their first postseason tournament in program history. According to oddsmakers at Draft Kings, Boise State is the favorite to cut down the nets at the College Basketball Crown (CBC) tournament and take home the $300,000 NIL grand prize. It won’t be a easy road for Leon Rice’s squad, who will need to beat a multitude of Power 5 teams to win, including some familiar faces, but the sportsbooks are backing the Broncos (+380). Let’s look at some of the other contenders in the tournament and how they may match up with the Broncos.
Cincinnati (Big 12, 18-15, +550)
The Bearcats are positioned on the other side of the bracket from Boise State, but according to oddsmakers pose the biggest threat to the Broncos. Cincinnati grabbed three wins over tournament teams, but finished just 7-13 in the Big 12 and ended up in the CBC. Wes Miller’s squad is a defense-first team that prioritizes running opponents off the three point line into their lengthy frontcourt. The Bearcats are highlighted by multiple former blue-chip recruits including Dillon Mitchell (#8 recruit in 2022) and Jizzle James (#80 recruit in 2023). James is the son of NFL Hall of Famer, Edgerrin James. Boise State could only matchup with Cincinnati in the Championship game, and their athleticism could pose problems for Boise State’s defense. Cincinnati plays DePaul in their first game.
Nebraska (Big Ten, 17-14, +600)
In mid-February, the Cornhuskers were 16-8 and a consensus 8/9 seed in most early brackets. They finished the season 1-6 and failed to qualify for the Big Ten Tournament altogether. Coached by former Chicago Bulls coach, Fred Hoiberg, the Cornhuskers play a polar opposite defense to Cincinnati. Nebraska’s defense wants teams to take above the break threes and trust their ability to secure rebounds off misses. Their scheme helped them knock off four tournament teams this season including a road win at Oregon. Brice Williams’ leads the Cornhusker’s offense, scoring 20.0 points per game, on nearly 47% shooting, and would pose a tough matchup for Boise State’s wings. Nebraska opens with Arizona State and would face the Broncos in the Semifinal.
Villanova (Big East, 19-14, +650)
At the time of writing this, the Wildcats are currently coachless. Kyle Neptuen was relieved of his duties after the season and his replacement has yet to be officially hired. Assistant coach Mike Nardi will serve as the interim during the CBC. The Wildcats had four wins over tournament teams, but bad losses to Columbia, Virginia and a sweep from Georgetown crushed their NCAA Tournament hopes. Under Neptune, Villanova was the 2nd most efficient three-point shooting team in college basketball at 39.8%. Star forward Eric Dixon is the nation’s leading scorer at 23 points per game, including made 94 threes this season at a 42.2% clip. Defensively, Villanova emphasizes help defense and protecting the paint, willing to let opponents live and die by the three. Villanova opens with Colorado and wouldn’t meet Boise State until the Championship.
USC (Big Ten, 16-17, +700)
The Trojans had a disappointing season under former Arkansas head coach, Eric Musselman. Plagued with injuries and inconsistency, Musselman never found a consistent lineup to work with, ultimately playing 14 players on the season and finishing 351st in KenPom’s minute continuity metric. One of the few bright spots on the Trojans season has been former Bronco, Chibuzo Agbo. Agbo is once again shooting nearly 40% from three and has been a steady defender on the wing for the Trojans. USC is one of the better shooting teams in the nation, and when they’re hot they’re capable of beating anyone, but their lack of rim protection has led to having the 303rd ranked two-point defense in the Nation. The Broncos wouldn’t face the Trojans until the Championship, but expect the Broncos to lean heavily on Tyson Degenhart’s inside scorer if the matchup happens. USC opens with Tulane in the first round.
Arizona State (Big 12, 13-17, +1300)
Much like USC, Arizona State suffered a disappointing season in large part due to a litany of injuries. After starting the season 9-2, including wins over Saint Mary’s and New Mexico, with(with lone losses to Gonzaga and Florida, the Sun Devils struggled to open conference play and as injuries to BJ Freeman and former five-star Jayden Quaintance hit, the wheels fell off, finishing 4-16 in Big 12 play. When healthy, Bobby Hurley’s squad is long, physical and athletic enough to compete with the Nation’s best (as seen in the loss to Gonzaga). Multiple key contributors are hitting the transfer portal, including Freeman and five-star freshman Joson Sanon, and there’s no word on Quaintance’s health. Some schools will allow departing players to play in the CBC, but I haven’t seen reporting if Arizona State is one of those schools yet. At their best, the Sun Devils can compete with anyone in the CBC, down three key contributors? Less likely. The Sun Devils would be a potential semifinal matchup for Boise State and open the CBC against Nebraska.
Utah (Big 12, 16-16, +1700)
The second team in this tournament we’ve highlighted without their head coach, Utah chose to relieve Craig Smith of his duties midseason. Unlike Villanova, Utah has their man of the future. Former player and Dallas Mavericks assistant, Alex Jensen, will lead the team in 2025-26. Jensen will be tasked with rebuilding a roster that has seen multiple players enter the portal including former four-star point guard Miro Little and starting center Lawson Lovering. No word on if players in the portal will be playing in the CBC. Under Smith, the Utes played a fast-paced ball movement heavy offense. 66.4% of Utah’s buckets are assisted, the most in the nation. Their offense emphasizes cutting, drive and kicks and taking threes. The problem? They don’t always make them. Utah’s 32.6% from three is 234th in the nation. More concerning is there turnover bug. Utah turns the ball over on 18.1% of possessions, 244th in the nation. At its worst, it has been the Utes’ achilles heel, highlighted by 70-36 loss to Houston in which Utah turned it over 26 times. If the Broncos get their shot at Utah, look for them to force turnovers and run in transition. Utah plays Butler to open, and the winner will take on the winner of Boise State/George Washington.
Butler (Big East, 14-19, +1800)
Led by longtime Ohio State head coach, Thad Matta, the Bulldogs present a familiar opposition for Bronco fans. Butler played, and beat, Boise State last season in Orlando. After a 7-1 start the included wins over Mississippi State, SMU and Northwestern, Butler went on a nine-game losing streak, ultimately finishing 7-18 after the hot start. Matta’s squad’s issues have largely been on the defensive side of the ball, which ranks 147th in KenPom’s Adjusted defensive efficiency. Their defensive philosophy can best be described as a lack of ball pressure. The pros of that? Butler opponents have the third lowest free throw rate in the Nation. The downside? Butler is 362nd in forcing turnovers. 88.5% of possessions will end with a shot, which has led to some opponents putting up gaudy point totals against the Bulldogs. Opponents have scored 70+ in 10 straight games. I think Butler poses a favorable matchup for the Broncos if it were to happen, whose exceptional rebounding and safe ball handling should allow the Broncos to control the tempo of the game. Butler opens with Utah, and would be second round matchup for Boise State if they can get past George Washington.
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There are eight other teams competing for the Crown (UCF, Colorado, Oregon State, Georgetown, DePaul, Washington State, George Washington and Tulane), but the ones listed above are seven oddsmakers favorites if it’s not the Broncos. Boise State tips off on Monday, March 31 at 3:30 MT in Las Vegas against George Washington. Bronco Nation News will have a full game preview later this week and coverage from Vegas all next week.
Nathan Carroll is a part-time contributor for Bronco Nation News and host of the TBA Basketball Podcast. Nathan works for Pro Football Focus as part of their data collection team, specializing in charting player data at the FBS level. Previously, he graduated from Boise State’s Honors College with a degree in Quantitative Economics and worked 5 years in Boise State’s athletic department. Follow him on X at Nathan_26_
