Andy Avalos was the Mountain West Coach of the Year in 2022.
He won that award for a single decision — firing Tim Plough after a 2-2 start and a humiliating loss against UTEP. One could argue everything else was fortunate.
It was incredibly fortunate that a former NFL head coach, Dirk Koetter, was sitting in the building and willing to come out of retirement for three months.
It was fortunate that Hank Bachmeier decided to hit the transfer portal — meaning there was no option of a quarterback competition.
It was fortunate that 6-foot-6 Taylen Green was waiting in the wings, a Vince-Young-like athlete who was a mystery to opposing schools.
It was fortunate that Koetter ran the offense he wanted — an RPO-heavy scheme that was different from what Plough was operating — without the fear of getting fired.
Avalos has been Boise State’s head coach for two-and-a-half seasons now. It could be argued that the pressure he’s facing heading into Saturday’s game against San Jose State rivals or exceeds that following the UTEP loss last season.
He has now had two quarterback controversies in two years and the final ruling for this one is, well, different. Both Green and Maddux Madsen will play against the Spartans, a dynamic that no one is quite sure the details of.
It is another pivotal choice for Avalos. If it backfires, folks will look at him. If it succeeds, perhaps there’s another award in his future.
It is easy to get caught up in his records: 19-12 overall, 9-6 at home, 2-8 against non-conference FBS opponents. But, Avalos’ stint has included a number of concerning head-coaching moves.
He lost to UTEP. He blew a 21-point lead at UCF in his first game. He surrendered a 17-point lead against Memphis on Saturday.
In the fourth quarter against Air Force in 2021, the Broncos had just 10 players on the field for a failed 4th-and-Goal attempt from the 1.
Against Air Force last year, Boise State nearly lost because of an “Illegal numbering” penalty when two guys on the field wore the same number on a punt return.
Last week at Memphis, going against analytics, Avalos decided to kick a field goal up three instead of going for it on 4th-and-1. The kick was blocked and returned for a touchdown.
Asked days later if he regretted the decision to not go for it on 4th-and-1, Avalos dug his heels in, saying he would not second guess his choice.
“We let the analytics of what our team does well influence those decisions,” Avalos said.
“How many points did we win by last week?” Avalos later asked the media, referring to the Broncos’ three-point win over San Diego State the week before.
“How many?” Avalos said, wanting an answer.
“Three,” someone responded.
Avalos nodded his head and looked away.
In his third season as a head coach, Avalos has a knack for quickly becoming testy with any reporter who even slightly suggests a decision he made could have been done differently. And, let’s just say, folks in the building have taken notice.
In Boise State’s win over San Diego State two weeks ago, the Broncos scored with two minutes left to go up 10 points. But instead of running into the end zone, Ashton Jeanty could have gotten the first down, went down on his own short of the goal line and Boise State could have basically ran out the clock with a victory formation (like Patrick Mahomes did for the Chiefs on Sunday night).
Instead, San Diego State received the kickoff, scored in a hurry and nearly recovered an onside kick with 41 seconds and a timeout remaining. It was poor clock management. It almost ended in disaster. Luckily for the Broncos, the choice did not come back to bite them.
After the game, San Diego Union-Tribune writer Mark Zeigler asked him about scoring and leaving the possibility of an SDSU miracle on the table.
“Well it was a two-possession game if we scored there,” Avalos said
“But you could have run out the clock if you got a first down,” Zeigler said.
“If you look at charts,” Avalos said, “the clock needed to get to a certain time on the clock with one timeout.”
That is not accurate. Because the clock still moves after the chains are set on a first down, San Diego State — even with one timeout — would have, at best, gotten the ball back with a few seconds left 98 yards from the end zone. The Broncos likely could have ran out the clock.
It was only after the Memphis game that Avalos solely took the blame for anything. It took a 2-3 record and a blown 17-point lead for him to publicly point the finger at himself.
“I take responsibility for everything,” Avalos said on Monday.
That should have happened weeks ago.
Avalos, a brilliant defensive coordinator at Boise State and Oregon, is running a team that ranks 116th in the nation in yards allowed and 122nd in passing yards given up.
He is also at the helm of what he continuously calls, “a developmental program,” which is struggling to develop kids right now. The defensive losses of Scott Matlock, JL Skinner and Ty Jones are proving more costly than many initially thought.
And then there’s the transfer portal. The Broncos did not just miss in the portal. They whiffed.
Boise State brought in nine transfers in the 2023 class. One guy — Titus Toler — has already left the program. Another — Howard Brown — is caught up in an NCAA investigation from stuff he did at Iowa State. The defensive transfers from this past class have tallied nine total tackles. And only two offensive transfers — receiver Chase Penry (3 catches), OL Ethan Carde — have played.
Avalos is a young head coach. Young head coaches make mistakes. It is part of the growing pains, part of the discomfort while building a program. But mistakes should not be repeated. And, if nothing else, they should be pointed out and taken on the chin.
Boise State has come to another fork in the road. Last year, he charted the perfect path. It saved the Broncos’ season.
Just over 12 months later, Avalos again finds himself at a junction. What lessons he learns from, what people he leans on, what choices he makes will determine how hot his seat gets come December.
