Boise State is coming off a 21-point win against San Jose State and has one last trip to Wyoming before leaving for the PAC-12 in 2026. The Broncos are 17-1 against the Cowboys all-time with the lone loss coming in 2016. Boise was 7-0 and ranked #13 in 2016 when they lost to Wyoming. Will history repeat itself or will the Broncos extend their win streak over Wyoming to 8 games?
Info:
#12 Boise State (9-1) at Wyoming (2-8)
Kickoff: 5:00 PM MT on CBS Sports Network
Location: War Memorial Stadium – Laramie, WY
Odds: Boise State -22.5 O/U 57
What to expect from the Cowboys?
I think Wyoming is better than their 2-8 record would suggest. The Cowboys started the season with Evan Svoboda at quarterback and was getting crushed week after week. The Cowboys moved to Freshman Kaden Anderson at playcaller during the Utah State game and has been a massive upgrade for their offense. Wyoming has some injuries along the offensive line but has a dynamic group of receivers that will test Boise’s secondary. Additionally, Harrison Waylee is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West when healthy.
Conversely, this is Wyoming’s worst defense in recent memory. The Cowboys rank 108th in EPA/rush and an even worse 121st in EPA/Dropback. If you had to identify a strength of this Wyoming defense, they’ve been good on money downs, holding teams to just 31.5% conversion rate on 3rd or 4th down. That’s 11th best in the Nation and will be an important matchup for a Broncos offense that ranks 3rd in the Nation in the same metric with a 53.7% conversion rate.
Of note, Wyoming will be without their two best defensive linemen this week, Sabastian Harsh and Braden Siders. The pair missed the Colorado State game and the Rams moved the ball at will, to the tune of 446 yards, including 248 yards on the ground and 7.2 yards per play. With those two out, look for Boise State to exert their will with Ashton Jeanty early and often in this game.
What’s at stake for the Broncos?
Obviously, for Boise State to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive they will need to win their remaining three games (Wyoming, Oregon State and the Mountain West Championship). Boise’s CFP bid is at the mercy of the committee (Bronco fans should cheer for Arizona State and Notre Dame this week), but there are some certainties at stake as it relates to the Mountain West Title. Here are the scenarios.
If Boise State wins, they will finish 7-0 in Mountain West play and guarantee a spot in the Mountain West Championship. The Broncos will almost certainly host the Mountain West Championship with a win (although there is technically a scenario where that is not the case). If Colorado State loses to Fresno State, Boise State is guaranteed to host. If Colorado State beats Fresno (and then Utah State next week) the Rams will be 7-0 in Mountain West play and the tiebreaker is the higher ranked team in the CFP (Which is almost guaranteed to be Boise State).
If Boise State loses to Wyoming, they may need to wait on UNLV and Colorado State’s week 14 results. Here are the potential outcomes:
If CSU wins out: Boise State would play CSU in Fort Collins. UNLV’s results at that point do not matter as Boise State has the tiebreaker over UNLV with their win in Las Vegas in October.
If UNLV wins out and CSU loses once: There will be a three way tiebreaker for the Mountain West Championship spots. The tiebreaker would go to highest ranked team in the CFP (or computer metrics if no one is ranked). Those would change with results, but most likely Boise State would host UNLV and Colorado State would be left out. This is the one outcome where Boise State could theoretically get left out, but it is highly unlikely.
If UNLV loses once and CSU loses once: Boise State and Colorado State would go to tiebreaker to see who hosts, which is highest ranked team in the CFP (or computer metrics if no one is ranked). Most likely, Boise State hosts.
If UNLV loses once and CSU loses twice: Boise State would host UNLV
If UNLV and CSU both lose twice: Boise State would host Colorado State
As long as Boise State takes care of business in Laramie, these outcomes don’t matter and Boise State will likely host the Mountain West Championship.
A chance for Ashton Jeanty to make another Heisman push
I mentioned earlier that Colorado State ran for 248 yards against Wyoming last week (including a -21 yard run, so realistically they were closer to 270) and Wyoming isn’t getting any help from the injury report.
Ashton Jeanty has fallen behind Travis Hunter in the race according to oddsmakers. Travis Hunter is up to -400, implying an 80% chance he wins the award at this point. For Jeanty to make a push at the award, he’ll need another monster performance against Wyoming. Jeanty will likely hit 2,000 yards this week (107 yards away), but his best bet at catching Hunter is going to be making a bush at Barry Sander’s record. Sanders ran for 2,628 yards in 1988, Jeanty is currently at 1,893 with at least 4 games remaining. That comes out to 184 yards per game, but Heisman votes are cast after conference championship games, Jeant would need 246 yards per game over the next three games to break Barry’s record before votes are cast. I think Jeanty likely needs a 250+ yard performance in Laramie to seriously push Hunter for the Heisman, and with rumors that Mason Randolph and/or Roger Carreon could be back this week, there is a real chance Jeanty gets it done.
While we’re talking about Travis Hunter… Please don’t be the Boise State fan that’s saying that Travis Hunter is mid at both sides of the ball. Yes, Ashton Jeanty is having the best RB season since Barry Sanders, but Hunter is a special player. He has an 83.8 Offensive PFF Grade and an 85.5 Defensive PFF grade. That roughly translates to being an All-Conference caliber Wide Receiver and an All-American caliber Cornerback. Hunter is a special player and, in my opinion, Jeanty vs Hunter is the best Heisman race we have had in a long time. Either would be run away Heisman winners in most seasons. How special that Boise State gets to be a part of it?
Keys to a Bronco Victory
Turn contested balls into incompletions: Last week, San Jose State went 8/11 on contested catch opportunities. Typically, offenses catch about 45% of contested throws. Boise State’s DBs were often in the right position, but couldn’t make plays on the ball. Wyoming doesn’t have a Justin Lockhart or a Nick Nash, but it’s a talented Wide Receiver core who can make big plays when called upon.
Keep Wyoming’s run game in check: The one place that Wyoming’s offense has been above average is in rushing explosiveness. ~8% of Wyoming runs are explosives, which is 65th percentile in FBS. With Harrison Waylee getting healthy, Wyoming’s best path to points is hitting explosives in the run game
Avoid Special Teams catastrophe: Last week was the worst Special Teams performance for the Broncos in a long time. A quick summary:
- Failed Fake Field Goal
- Missed Field Goal
- Fumble on Kick Return
- Missed tackles on kickoff led to short field for San Jose State
B.J. wrote this week about Boise State’s special teams errors, Boise State doesn’t need Special Teams to be a strength to win this week, but they need to avoid the catastrophic errors.
Broncos to watch:
Boise State played most of last week’s game in Dime (meaning one linebacker on the field) to match San Jose State’s spread looks, but Wyoming utilizes a lot more 12 personnel (1 back, 2 tight ends). Wyoming will even go to 13 or 22 pesonnel groupings. That means Boise State is going to play a lot more two and three linebacker looks. Andrew Simpson missed last week with an undisclosed injury. If Simpson is out again, look for Chase Martin or Clay Martineau to see a hefty increase in usage.
Offensively, all eyes will be on warm ups for Roger Carreon and Mason Randolph. Expectations were that both would be gone for the season, but Danielson said this week that both offensive linemen are working their way back into the lineup. Mason Randolph tore his bicep in week 1 against Georgia Southern and Roger Carreon broke his leg in week 2 against Oregon. Boise State has had a revolving door at Center and Right Guard since those two went down, so either (or both) can go it will be a massive boost to the offense’s biggest weak point.
Analytic Projections:
With college football data getting better, CFB analytics are getting more and more accurate. Here are what three of the top analytical power ratings are projecting for this game (as well as my own personal power ratings):
Sagarin: Boise State by 19 (41-22)
SP+: Boise State by 13 (36-23)
ESPN FPI: Boise State by 21
CFB Insiders: Boise State by 22 (42-20)
NC PR: Boise State by 23 (42-19)
Final Prediction:
#12 Boise State 45, Wyoming 20
This is two teams going opposite directions. Within this season, Wyoming is losing guys to injury each week, including their two best defensive linemen. Meanwhile, it seems like Boise State is getting healthy at the right time. As programs, Wyoming’s best coach since the 60’s retired and new head coach Jay Sawvel is having a disaster first season, the Cowboys worst since 2015. Meanwhile, the Broncos moved off their least successful coach since becoming an FBS program and new man, Spencer Danielson, is leading the Broncos to their best season since 2014.
Wyoming’s struggles in the front seven should have Boise State’s run game chomping at the bit. The Cowboys pass rush is almost non-existent with their injuries and I just don’t see how they get enough stops to win this game. Maybe if they had weather on their side, but forecasts are 45º and minimal wind (for Laramie standards). On the other side of the ball, I don’t think Wyoming has the horses offensively to win a shootout with Boise State. The offensive line is beat up, they lack a clear identity and, while I like Kaden Anderson a lot, I don’t think he moves well enough to avoid Boise State’s pass rush.
Ashton Jeanty goes for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns. The defense adds 5 sacks to their Mountain West leading total and the special teams bounces back with a touchdown this week.
No context Mountain West Predictions:
UNLV 33, San Jose State 30
Utah State 45, San Diego State 28
Colorado State 27, Fresno State 12
Air Force 23, Nevada 16
Last week:
Boise State 34, San Jose State 29 (Boise won 42-21)
Colorado State 24, Wyoming 20 (CSU won 24-10)
Hawai’I 35, Utah State 26 (Utah State won 55-10)
Air Force 24, Oregon State 22 (Air Force won 28-0)
Washington State 48, New Mexico 31 (New Mexico won 38-35)
UNLV 45, San Diego State 16 (UNLV won 41-20)
