LAS VEGAS – After Boise State’s 37-30 loss to Fresno State on Nov. 4, there was very little thought of Boise State winning a Mountain West Championship.
Heck, at 4-5, many were wondering if Boise State would even win two of the final three games just to qualify for a bowl game.
Odds were so low, in fact, that numbers run by Boise State using the ESPN win probabilities show the Broncos had just a 0.1 percent chance of things falling their way over the final three weeks.
“I just think of that movie Dumb and Dumber – so you’re saying there’s a chance?,” defensive line coach Erik Chinander said with a chuckle. “When the cards are stacked against you, either you fold up or go all-in, and I think everybody in this building went all-in and it’s been really cool to watch.”
Against all odds and probabilities the Broncos will board a flight Friday afternoon for Las Vegas, where they will play UNLV at Allegiant Stadium on Saturday at 1 p.m. MT on FOX in the Mountain West Championship Game.
It’s Boise State’s fifth appearance in the title game in the past six years – but it’s by far the most improbable.
And as whacky and disappointing as a good chunk of the season has been, the Broncos now are in position to make it one of the most memorable in program history with a win on Saturday.
“It would be unbelievable,” said tight end and sixth-year senior captain Riley Smith. “I’ve been here since 2018 and have been to four championships and only have one win. … I’m excited to get out there and at the end of the day be holding up that trophy.
“I feel it deep in my core that this is the team and this is the opportunity. Everything we’ve been through throughout this season has been for this moment right now.”
Boise State started the miraculous turnaround with a 42-14 win over New Mexico. But then barely 12 hours later came the stunning news that coach Andy Avalos had been fired. That’s another crazy side story in all this.
The Broncos were 5-5, on an interim coach and needed two wins and a lot of help. It didn’t seem likely. According to the numbers it was nearly impossible.
But Air Force somehow lost at Hawaii after the Broncos topped New Mexico on Nov. 11, and then Fresno State stunningly lost to New Mexico on Nov. 18 – just hours after the Broncos crushed Utah State, 45-10.
That meant a win over Air Force in the regular season finale – and some help from the computers to decide a three-way tie with UNLV and San Jose State – would get the Broncos into the title game. And that’s exactly what happened.
“We took care of what we needed to take care of,” linebacker and team captain DJ Schramm said. “We did get a little bit of help and the chips fell in our favor a little bit and we’re thankful for that. Now we have to go out there and make the most of this opportunity.
“This team has been through a lot this year so it’s super exciting that we get this opportunity.”
Boise State has five losses, but each of the last four have come by one score. The two painful ones are the 35-32 loss at Memphis (nonconference) and a 31-30 loss at Colorado State.
The Broncos had a field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown in the loss at Memphis, while Colorado State won the game on a Hail Mary as time expired. Win both or even one of those games and the season likely has a different feel.
The Broncos also suffered an 18-16 loss to UCF on a field goal on the final play of the game. That’s three losses by a combined six points and another to Fresno State by 7.
It’s been a season of ‘what could have been’ in some ways. Yet here they are, still with a chance to achieve the same goal they set out when the season started – win a Mountain West Championship.
“Things didn’t go exactly as planned in a lot of ways and they kept their heads down and kept swinging and got back in the ring,” Chinander said. “We got some new life when a few teams beat some other teams in the conference. … It’s a huge reward for these guys. They’ve earned this opportunity and it’s going to be fun to watch them play.”
Making the whole thing even more surreal? The game is at the new Allegiant Stadium, home to the Las Vegas Raiders and where the Super Bowl will be in barely two months.
“Some of these guys have never been in an NFL stadium so for them to get to play in a venue like this, circumstances like this with the whole United States watching – it’s going to be really awesome,” Chinander said.
Five losses. Heartbreak. A coaching change. A season to forget for much of the season.
It could be one to remember come Saturday.
“This is one of those weeks where you don’t really need any extra motivation. We know what’s on the line,” running back Ashton Jeanty said. “It’s an opportunity like no other. You dream about winning conference championships and the opportunity is right there. I know not just me but everybody in this building is going to do whatever it takes to get it done.”
Bronco Nation News will be LIVE from Allegiant Stadium with the Lithia Ford of Boise Pregame Show on Saturday morning at 10:30 a.m. Watch the show on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter.
